Results - ASX:GMD
Genesis FY26: EBITDA A$952m, 285,402oz gold at A$2,670/oz AISC, cash A$520m, Vault merger on track
Genesis reported FY26 EBITDA of A$952.4m, up 110%, from 285,402oz of gold produced at an AISC of A$2,670/oz, within guidance. Cash rose 81% to A$520.1m after A$275m of growth and exploration spend and the A$447m cash component of the Magnetic acquisition. The release contains no new drilling or resource data; the Vault merger is still targeted for completion in November 2026.
(price sensitive) - Genesis Minerals announced: "EBITDA more than doubles to A$952m on strong margins" (6 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Gold produced rose 33% to 285,402oz in FY26, inside the 260,000-290,000oz guidance, and AISC of A$2,670/oz sat inside the A$2,500-2,700/oz range.
- Underlying NPAT was A$546.9m, up 147%, while statutory NPAT of A$601.8m was lifted by a one-off tax benefit from transferred tax losses.
- Cash and equivalents were A$520.1m at 30 June 2026 against A$200m of bank debt, with A$100m undrawn and A$620m of total liquidity.
- Underlying cash generation of A$899m was before A$275m of growth and exploration spend, the A$447m Magnetic cash payment, the A$100m debt drawdown and A$44m of duties and fees.
- A maiden fully franked dividend of 5.0c per share is payable, with a record date of 10 September 2026 and payment on 5 October 2026; the Vault cash consideration rises by about A$39.4m as a result.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Cash
- $520m
- Debt
- $200m
- Undrawn facilities
- $100m
- Operating cash flow (quarter)
- $935m
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $50.6m
- Shares on issue
- 1,174.0m
- Options, rights & convertibles
- 22.0m
- Gold produced
- 285,402 oz
- AISC
- A$2,670/oz (margin about A$3,748/oz at the day's gold price)
- Revenue
- $1.7bn
- Guidance
- FY26 guidance of 260,000-290,000oz at AISC of A$2,500-2,700/oz was met (285,402oz produced; AISC A$2,670/oz). The Chairman says guidance was met for the third year running. FY27 stand-alone guidance (previously announced) is 270,000-300,000oz at AISC of A$2,750-3,050/oz, with second-half AISC expected to be lower than the first half. The stand-alone plan is to be replaced by the merged strategic plan, targeted for the first half of 2027.
Figures are for the 12 months to 30 June 2026, not a single quarter; operating cash flow of A$935.2m is the full-year figure. Gold production was 285,402oz, and 289koz was sold. Cash of A$520.1m is before about A$32m of stamp duty payable in CY2027. Liquidity of A$620m comprises cash and bullion A$501m, liquid investments A$19m and undrawn debt A$100m. Finance leases of A$103m are excluded from debt. Exploration of A$50.6m is the exploration line within the A$275m of growth capital and exploration. Unquoted securities of 22m may include options and rights. The company is self-funding at current gold prices, but a catch-up tax payment of A$100-120m is due in December 2026 and the company is in talks to upsize its facility if the merger proceeds.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
Resource / reserve
- What changed
- No resource or reserve estimate is updated in this release. It cites the Lady Julie resource (2.2Moz, from the 16 February 2026 joint announcement with Magnetic Resources) and pro forma merged totals of 34Moz Resources and 9Moz Reserves. It also cites about 25Moz of Resource not currently in Reserves. Tonnes and grade are not given for any of these figures.
How the price reacted
News signal positive, and on day 1 the stock moved +1.9% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +0.8% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($7.26 on 19 Aug 2026), with day-1 volume 1.3x the 20-day average.
GMD's past price-sensitive news
After 8 earlier announcements, GMD rose on day 1 5 times and fell 3 times - an average move of +1.8%.
DrillScore's database holds no share price reactions to earlier Genesis news, so there is no past pattern for this kind of release. The database records the release as positive. Since release, the share price has moved from A$7.26 to A$7.05 (about -2.9%) over a period in which GDX and GDXJ fell 16.1% and 21.8%. Sector moves dominate this period, so the change cannot be attributed to the release alone. This is a description of past moves, not a forecast.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for GMD and it isn't advice.
After 41 other announcements read as 'positive', stocks moved +1.8% by day 1, +2.2% by day 5 and +1.0% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.8%
- Day 5
- +2.2%
- Day 20
- +1.0%
After its earlier announcements, GMD moved +2.1% by day 1, +1.7% by day 5 and +6.8% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +2.1%
- Day 5
- +1.7%
- Day 20
- +6.8%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved +17.3% (rising). After 38 past gold announcements released into a rising gold index, stocks moved +1.6% by day 1, +2.1% by day 5 and -4.6% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.6%
- Day 5
- +2.1%
- Day 20
- -4.6%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,545 | US$3,886 | -14.5% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,418 | A$5,737 | -10.6% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.49 | US$6.09 | -6.1% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7082 | 0.6774 | -4.3% |
Gold fell sharply after the release. COMEX gold dropped from US$4,545.3/oz to US$3,886.3/oz and in A$ terms from A$6,418.1/oz to A$5,737.08/oz. Spot remains well above the A$2,670/oz AISC and the A$2,750-3,050/oz FY27 guidance, but it is now below the A$6,009/oz average realised price in FY26. Rising US real yields and a stronger US dollar (DXY up 4.6%, US 10-year yield up 0.50 points) are headwinds for gold. Copper (-6.1%) and silver (-25.3%) also fell. The S&P/ASX Gold index held up (-0.4% since release), while GDX (-16.1%), GDXJ (-21.8%) and COPX (-21.6%) fell far more, so global miner sentiment has weakened much more than the local gold index.
Against GMD's own history
DrillScore's database holds no earlier Genesis gold intercepts and no capital raisings. The June quarter in the database shows gold of 70,766oz at AISC of A$2,797/oz, against FY26 AISC of A$2,670/oz in this release, and FY25 production was 214,311oz at A$2,398/oz. Cash of A$520m and bank debt of A$200m in the database match this release. However, database rows show undrawn facilities of A$800m, while this release states A$100m, and share counts of 1142m, 1170m and 1170.35m, against 1,174m in this release. These rows look wrong and should be checked before use.
Risks & caveats
- Gold has fallen since the release: spot moved from US$4,545.3/oz to US$3,886.3/oz (-14.5%) and from A$6,418.1/oz to A$5,737.08/oz (-10.6%), now below the FY26 average realised price of A$6,009/oz.
- Cash tax is rising sharply: a catch-up payment of A$100-120m is expected in December 2026 after only A$14m of PAYG instalments in FY26.
- Reported AISC excludes A$139.1m of third-party ore purchase costs and 38,367oz of third-party ounces. The processing agreements ended in the March quarter of FY26.
- Stockpile grade fell to 0.9g/t from 1.6g/t, and the A$293m stockpile value is quoted at 30 June spot, not current prices.
- The 4,500oz of zero-cost collars expire in the September quarter 2026, after which the company is unhedged. The merger completion date is not yet certain.
What's next
- Vault Scheme of Arrangement completion (Genesis to acquire 100% of Vault) - November 2026
- Dividend record date (5.0c per share, fully franked) - 10 September 2026
- Dividend payment date - 5 October 2026
- Hedge collars expire; company becomes unhedged - September quarter 2026
- Catch-up income tax payment of A$100-120m - December 2026
- Merged long-term Strategic Plan release (includes multi-year production and cost assumptions and a Capital Management Framework) - first half 2027 (targeted June half 2027)
- Payment of about A$32m stamp duty on the Magnetic acquisition - during CY2027
Questions worth asking
- What is the total cash cost of the Vault merger, and how will the cash component of about A$540m be funded given A$100m of undrawn debt?
- On what basis is the ~A$2.0b undiscounted synergy figure built, and how much of it is unique to the merger?
- What would FY26 AISC have been if the A$139.1m of third-party ore costs were included, and is FY27 guidance set on the same basis?
- Which Competent Person and JORC source support the merged 34Moz Resources and 9Moz Reserves, and when were they estimated?
- How will the company replace the 4,500oz of hedges and its gold exposure after September 2026, and what hedging policy will apply to the merged group?
What it means
For anyone following Genesis, the FY26 numbers show a strong year that met production and cost guidance, with cash rising to A$520m. The cash position is also heading into a period of large commitments: a A$100-120m tax catch-up, about A$32m of stamp duty, the 5.0c dividend and the costs of the Vault merger. Most of the future case now depends on the merger's synergies and the gold price, which has fallen since this release. The release has no new drilling or resource data, so no exploration signal is added. This is general information only, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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