Guidance - ASX:RRL
Regis sets FY27 gold guidance at 360-400koz, AISC A$2,990-3,390/oz; 30 June bullion corrected
Regis Resources has set FY27 group gold guidance at 360-400koz, with Duketon at 240-270koz and its 30% share of Tropicana at 120-130koz. Group all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance is A$2,990-3,390/oz, including about A$88/oz of non-cash stockpile movements, and it assumes a diesel price of A$1.35/L at Duketon. The release also corrects the 30 June 2026 cash and bullion figure from A$1.210 billion to A$1.184 billion, after 4,391oz of gold was wrongly reported as poured bullion.
(price sensitive) - Regis Resources announced: "Stronger Production Outlook Lifts FY27 Guidance" (2 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- FY27 group gold guidance is 360-400koz, made up of Duketon 240-270koz and Tropicana (30%) 120-130koz.
- Group AISC guidance is A$2,990-3,390/oz; Duketon is A$3,100-3,550/oz and Tropicana A$2,630-2,950/oz.
- Group AISC guidance includes about A$88/oz of non-cash stockpile movements, and the company says the diesel sensitivity is about A$25/oz per 10c/L move.
- Duketon output is expected to be higher than FY26 and skewed to the second half, partly from lower-margin Moolart Well ounces that the company says are still profitable.
- Tropicana output is guided slightly lower year on year because of lower open pit ore at Havana, which raises the share of lower-grade stockpile feed.
- Group growth capital is guided at A$250-270m, exploration at A$80-90m (planned higher) and McPhillamys at A$30-35m (increased).
- The company corrected its 30 June 2026 cash and bullion from A$1.210 billion to A$1.184 billion; it says FY26 group gold production and cash balance are unchanged.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance: group gold production 360-400koz (Duketon 240-270koz; Tropicana 30% share 120-130koz). Duketon output expected higher than FY26 and skewed to H2; Tropicana slightly lower year on year. Group AISC A$2,990-3,390/oz (Duketon A$3,100-3,550; Tropicana A$2,630-2,950), including about A$88/oz of non-cash stockpile movements. These are forecasts; the announcement gives no FY27 actuals and no prior guidance for comparison.
No Appendix 5B and no FY27 cash flow are in the announcement. Cash is not given as cash alone: the company states end-of-month 'cash and bullion on hand' of A$1.184 billion at 30 June 2026 after correction (previously A$1.210 billion). Because bullion is not cash, cash_aud_m is left blank and the figure is shown here only. Growth capital guidance is A$250-270m for FY27 (Duketon A$235-245m, Tropicana A$15-25m), exploration A$80-90m and McPhillamys A$30-35m. No currency conversion was needed; all figures are A$ as stated.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved -3.5% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +1.0% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($6.16 on 16 Jul 2026), with day-1 volume 1.2x the 20-day average.
RRL's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, RRL rose on day 1 5 times and fell 4 times - an average move of +0.4%.
DrillScore has no earlier price reactions for Regis on record, so no pattern can be drawn for this kind of news. The context gives the price before release (A$6.16 close on 16 July) and now (A$6.65). That move overlaps a large sector move and a fall in the US$ gold price, so it cannot be attributed to this announcement.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for RRL and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.6% by day 1, +0.8% by day 5 and +0.7% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.6%
- Day 5
- +0.8%
- Day 20
- +0.7%
This is the first of RRL's announcements DrillScore has seen trade.
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved -13.8% (falling). After 34 past gold announcements released into a falling gold index, stocks moved +2.2% by day 1, +4.2% by day 5 and +10.9% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +2.2%
- Day 5
- +4.2%
- Day 20
- +10.9%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$3,992 | US$3,886 | -2.7% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$5,696 | A$5,737 | +0.7% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.30 | US$6.09 | -3.3% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7008 | 0.6774 | -3.3% |
At the 16 July release, gold was US$3,992.1/oz (A$5,696.49/oz), and now it is US$3,886.3/oz (A$5,737.08/oz). Group AISC guidance of A$2,990-3,390/oz sits well below the A$ gold price at both dates, although the company's AISC includes about A$88/oz of non-cash stockpile movements. The announcement does not state a gold price deck, so the spot comparison is the only price reference. Diesel is the key cost assumption, and WTI crude has risen from US$78.95 to US$88.56 since release, which is a risk to the A$1.35/L assumption. The AUD has fallen about 3% against the US dollar, which lifts the A$ gold price. Sector mood has been mixed: XGD and GDX are higher since release, while gold in US$ and the copper miners fund COPX are lower.
Against RRL's own history
DrillScore has no earlier intercepts, cash figures, raisings or guidance on record for Regis, so this cannot be compared with prior DrillScore entries. Within the announcement, Duketon output is expected to rise on FY26 and Tropicana to fall slightly. The prior FY27 guidance is not in the PDF, so the size of the lift cannot be measured. A footnote cites a 6 July 2026 release titled '379koz Produced, Top End of Guidance Achieved', which suggests FY26 group output of about 379koz; that figure is taken from the title, not from this announcement. This review is of a 17 July 2026 release, read on 14 November 2026.
Risks & caveats
- AISC rises with the diesel assumption and with higher-cost ounces from BuckWell, so unit costs are higher even though output is up.
- The A$1.35/L diesel assumption was set in July; the market data supplied shows crude oil (WTI) up about 12% since release, but the current diesel price is not in the announcement.
- Tropicana output is down and the mix shifts towards lower-grade stockpile feed.
- Extra exploration and McPhillamys spending will draw on cash that the announcement does not quantify for FY27.
- The bullion correction shows that a balance-date figure was reported before final reconciliation, which investors may want explained.
- Guidance is forward-looking and subject to the company's cautionary statements; the announcement gives no quarterly actuals to test it against.
What's next
- Duketon: new open pits ramp up production - H2 FY27
- Rosemont Stage 3 underground expected to enter commercial production - late FY27
- Havana UG approaches commercial production (Tropicana) - not stated
- McPhillamys Final Investment Decision - first half calendar 2028
Questions worth asking
- What was the FY27 guidance before this release, and how much of the 360-400koz increase is from Moolart Well ounces?
- What diesel price is Duketon paying now, compared with the A$1.35/L assumption?
- How much of the A$88/oz non-cash stockpile movement in group AISC is expected to reverse, and when?
- What controls identified the 4,391oz bullion timing error, and why was it not caught before the 30 June figure was published?
- How will the higher exploration and McPhillamys spend be funded alongside growth capital of A$250-270m?
What it means
For someone following Regis, this release is mainly a plan. The company expects more gold from Duketon in FY27 by filling spare mill capacity with lower-margin ounces, and it expects higher unit costs at Duketon, higher exploration spending and a higher McPhillamys budget. Output guidance is a forecast that depends on diesel, ore mix and mill performance, and the company's own cautionary statements apply. The bullion correction is a reminder to check the balance-date numbers once the next quarterly and Appendix 5B are out. This is general information, not personal advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
Start the conversation
Discuss RRL's announcement