Westgold FY27 guidance 385-425koz at A$2,980-3,380/oz; FY29 outlook 460-510koz excludes Fletcher

What investors must know

1. FY27 guidance is 385-425koz of gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,980-3,380/oz, with non-sustaining capex of A$450-480M and exploration and resource definition of A$50-75M.
2. The outlook lifts output to 425-470koz in FY28 and 460-510koz in FY29, with AISC of A$3,000-3,400/oz in FY28 and A$2,640-3,000/oz in FY29 on an FY27 real-cost basis.
3. The chart shows FY26 actual output of 387koz at about A$2,841/oz AISC, so FY27 guidance is a cost step-up before the outlook improves unit costs.
4. Fletcher at Beta Hunt is excluded; internal conceptual studies say it could add about 140kozpa, and the 'more than 600,000ozpa' figure is labelled by the company as aspirational.
5. The FY29 production target rests on 74% Ore Reserves, 18% Inferred Mineral Resources and 8% third-party ore, according to the cautionary statement.
6. No new drilling results, reserves or resources are reported; the 1.1Moz Fletcher Ore Reserve and 4.1Moz group Ore Reserve were released on 18 and 20 August 2026 and are restated here.
7. Management says the plan is fully funded, but the release gives no cash balance, cash flow forecast or funding table to support that claim.

Money: can they follow it up?

Guidance

FY27 gold 385-425koz at AISC A$2,980-3,380/oz (third-party ounces and costs excluded from $/oz). FY28 425-470koz at A$3,000-3,400/oz. FY29 460-510koz at A$2,640-3,000/oz on an FY27 real-cost basis. FY26 actual 387koz per chart, with AISC about A$2,841/oz per chart. Management says FY26 record production exceeded annual guidance. Guidance is not yet tested.

The release gives production and cost guidance and capex ranges, not an actual quarter. It gives no cash balance, operating cash flow, Appendix 5B, share count or funding table, so those fields are left blank rather than taken from other sources. Management says the outlook is fully funded and supports shareholder returns, but the release does not show how. Capex guidance is A$450-480M non-sustaining in FY27, A$430-460M in FY28 and A$390-410M in FY29, plus A$50-75M a year in exploration and resource definition.

Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway

Resource / reserve

Tonnes

40.1 Mt

Grade

2.30 g/t Au

Contained metal

3.00 Moz

What changed

Restated, not new. Fletcher Mineral Resource is 40.1Mt at 2.3g/t Au for 3.0Moz, inclusive of a 13.5Mt at 2.6g/t Au Ore Reserve for 1.1Moz, first declared 18 August 2026. Group Ore Reserve of 4.1Moz and Mineral Resource of 14.4Moz were restated from the 20 August 2026 statement. The Measured and Indicated share is not stated for Fletcher.

Resources vs reserves explained

How the price reacted

From the last close before the market could trade on it ($6.46 on 8 Sep 2026), with day-1 volume 1.9x the 20-day average.

WGX's past price-sensitive news

After 9 earlier announcements, WGX rose on day 1 8 times and fell 1 times - an average move of +2.9%.

• 20 Oct 26+2.2%
• 20 Oct 26+2.2%
• 27 Aug 26+1.5%
• 27 Aug 26+1.5%
• 27 Aug 26+1.5%
• 24 Aug 26+2.0%
• 19 Aug 26+8.9%
• 17 Aug 260.0%
• 4 Aug 26+6.4%

DrillScore has no recorded share price reactions for Westgold, so there is no company-specific pattern to compare against. Since release, WGX has closed at A$5.71 from A$6.46, a fall of about 11.6%, against a 7.3% fall in the ASX Gold index and a 17.0% fall in GDX. The move coincides with lower gold and silver prices, a stronger US dollar and higher US yields, so the effect of the outlook itself cannot be separated from the sector moves.

Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results

The historical pattern

What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for WGX and it isn't advice.

A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out

The market it landed in

Gold has fallen since release. COMEX gold went from US$4,439/oz to US$3,886/oz, and A$ gold from A$6,147/oz to A$5,737/oz, a smaller fall because the Australian dollar weakened from 0.7221 to 0.6774 US cents. At spot, the gap between A$5,737/oz and the guided AISC of A$2,980-3,380/oz is roughly A$2,350-2,750/oz before tax and growth capital. The JORC appendix quotes a A$5,500/oz input price for mine revenue and royalties and a US$4,800/oz long-term forecast for cut-off grades and pit optimisation, but it does not say which currency the figures are in. Miner funds fell harder than the gold price (GDX down 17.0%, GDXJ down 22.4%, XGD down 7.3%), with the US 10-year yield up to 5.15% and the dollar index at 103.4. Several sites run on diesel generation, and WTI at US$88.56/bbl is up 50.9% over the year, which is a cost pressure to track against the AISC guidance.

Against WGX's own history

DrillScore has no earlier drill intercepts, no capital raisings and no earlier share price reactions on record for Westgold. The four analysed August 2026 announcements were studies and reserve updates, not drilling: Cue mill upgrade scoping (5 Aug), the Fletcher maiden Ore Reserve (18 Aug), the 4.1Moz Ore Reserve update (20 Aug) and Meekatharra expansion scoping (25 Aug). This outlook turns those studies into a production and cost profile. The database records cash of A$939M and undrawn facilities of A$600M at 30 June 2026, but this PDF does not state those figures. The PDF refers to record FY26 operating cash flow and A$122M of FY26 shareholder capital returns (by reference to a 28 August announcement). FY27 AISC guidance of A$2,980-3,380/oz is above the FY26 actual of about A$2,841/oz shown in the chart, which the company attributes to inflation, royalties and lower Southern Goldfields grades.

Questions worth asking

• Can Westgold publish the FY27-FY29 cash flow forecast behind the 'fully funded' claim, showing operating cash flow, capex, dividends and capital returns, and the cash balance expected at each year end?
• What share of the FY29 460-510koz comes from Ore Reserves, and what would FY29 output be if the 18% Inferred and 8% third-party ore does not come through?
• Why do the third-party ounces in the text (30koz in FY27, 70koz in FY28, 40koz in FY29) not reconcile to the 5%, 11% and 8% shares in the cautionary statement?
• What gold price and currency underpin the reserve, given that the A$5,500/oz and US$4,800/oz figures are quoted without a clear currency, and how sensitive is AISC to diesel and wage costs?
• What basis beyond internal conceptual studies supports the 140kozpa Fletcher figure and the 'more than 600,000ozpa' aspiration?