Guidance - ASX:RMS
Ramelius FY27 guidance 205-225koz at A$2,150-2,350/oz; FY30 outlook lifted to 560-610koz
Ramelius guided FY27 gold output of 205-225koz at an AISC of A$2,150-2,350/oz and lifted its FY30 outlook to 560-610koz. The Mt Magnet plant estimate rose to A$280m underlying, or about A$350m including scope additions and contingency. No new drill results were released, and the new Gilbey's and Lena scoping studies rely partly on Inferred resources.
(price sensitive) - Ramelius Resources announced: "Four-Year Outlook and FY27 Guidance" (13 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- FY27 guidance is 205-225koz at an AISC of A$2,150-2,350/oz, compared with FY26 actual output of 192,182oz at A$1,983/oz.
- The FY30 outlook is 560-610koz at A$2,100-2,400/oz, made up of 420-460koz from Mt Magnet and 140-150koz from Rebecca-Roe.
- The Mt Magnet plant estimate is A$280m underlying, up from A$223m at PFS, and about A$350m including A$46m of scope enhancements and A$24m of contingency.
- Group FY27 growth capex is A$480-570m, with exploration and resource definition of A$90-110m on top.
- The gold price assumption rose to A$5,500/oz from A$4,500/oz, which lifts gold royalties and therefore AISC.
- Edna May sale proceeds of A$210m cash and A$90m in Forrestania shares were received on 4 September 2026, with about A$50m of tax due in December 2026.
- Gilbey's (250-300koz) and Lena (120-160koz) are scoping-level production targets, with 75koz and 74koz respectively drawn from Inferred resources.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance: 205-225koz gold at AISC A$2,150-2,350/oz, with group growth capex of A$480-570m. FY30 outlook: 560-610koz at A$2,100-2,400/oz, an 11% increase on the October 2025 plan. The company says it met FY26 guidance for the sixth consecutive year; DrillScore history shows FY26 output of 192,182oz at A$1,983/oz AISC.
No Appendix 5B is included. Cash, gold and investment holdings are given together as above A$1Bn, with no split. Edna May proceeds of A$210m cash and A$90m Forrestania shares were received on 4 September 2026. Stamp duty of A$131m was paid in July 2026, and about A$50m of tax is due in December 2026. All figures are in A$ as stated, with no currency conversion. The company says its growth plans are fully funded.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved +6.9% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +6.1% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($3.58 on 18 Sep 2026), with day-1 volume 1.0x the 20-day average.
RMS's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, RMS rose on day 1 5 times and fell 4 times - an average move of +0.6%.
The database records no share price reactions to earlier price-sensitive news for this stock, so there is no direct reaction history for this kind of announcement. The closest references are the 29 July quarterly (DrillScore 73, positive) and the 29 April quarterly (DrillScore 58, mixed), though both were production reports rather than outlook changes. The shares closed at A$3.58 before release and are A$3.68 now, within a 52-week range of A$2.70-5.16. No day-of-release move is supplied. Sector indices have fallen since release, so the change cannot be attributed to this announcement.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for RMS and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.3% by day 1, +0.6% by day 5 and +0.5% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.3%
- Day 5
- +0.6%
- Day 20
- +0.5%
After its earlier announcements, RMS moved +0.5% by day 1, -0.8% by day 5 and 0.0% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.5%
- Day 5
- -0.8%
- Day 20
- 0.0%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved -5.8% (falling). After 34 past gold announcements released into a falling gold index, stocks moved +1.8% by day 1, +4.1% by day 5 and +11.8% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.8%
- Day 5
- +4.1%
- Day 20
- +11.8%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,425 | US$3,886 | -12.2% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,219 | A$5,737 | -7.8% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.62 | US$6.09 | -7.9% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7115 | 0.6774 | -4.8% |
At release, gold was US$4,425/oz and A$6,219/oz. Now it is US$3,886/oz and A$5,737/oz, down 12.2% and 7.8% respectively. The FY27 guidance and the outlook use a A$5,500/oz deck, which is below the release-day spot and below today's spot. Royalties rise with the gold price, so spot above the deck pushes costs up against guidance. At today's spot, the gap to the FY27 AISC range is about A$3,390-3,590/oz, before tax and growth capex. Sector mood has weakened: since release, GDX is down 14.5%, GDXJ 20.4%, COPX 20.7% and the XGD 3.8%. The AUD is down 4.8% and the US dollar index is up 3.2%. These moves are sector-wide, so they say little about this release alone. The diesel assumption also changes from A$1.50/L to A$1.25/L from January 2027.
Against RMS's own history
The history supplied holds Galaxy, Penny and Mt Magnet hub drill results from April and August 2026, none of which are new here. The 25 August 2026 resource update lifted Mineral Resources 17% to 14Moz and Ore Reserves 79% to 4.3Moz. FY26 output was 192,182oz, and the June quarter was 53,466oz at A$1,973/oz. The FY26 AISC of A$1,983/oz sat inside guidance raised in April to A$1,900-2,050/oz. FY27 AISC guidance of A$2,150-2,350/oz is therefore above the FY26 actual. Cash was about A$608m at 30 June 2026 with A$500m of undrawn facilities. No capital raisings are on record. The Edna May sale was reported in June at A$300m, and this release splits it as A$210m cash and A$90m shares. This is a guidance and capex update rather than a drilling result, so it is not comparable with the earlier intercepts.
Risks & caveats
- The Mt Magnet plant estimate has risen from A$223m at PFS to about A$350m including contingency, with the company citing inflation, EPC pricing and scope additions.
- FY27 AISC guidance is above the FY26 actual of A$1,983/oz, and the FY30 range of A$2,100-2,400/oz is based on a A$5,500/oz gold assumption.
- Rebecca-Roe output in FY29-30 depends on Roe environmental permitting, which is expected in the December 2026 Quarter, and the financial investment decision is subject to it.
- About 5.5% of the Mt Magnet FY30 Production Target is Inferred resource, and the company says there is no certainty it will be realised.
- Gilbey's and Lena are scoping studies, and this release gives no NPV, IRR or total capex for either.
What's next
- Eridanus Stage 3 cutback mining starts - November 2026 (as stated)
- Roe Part V approvals for Rebecca-Roe - December 2026 Quarter (expected)
- Payment of about A$50m tax on the Edna May sale - December 2026 (as stated)
- Mt Magnet Circuit 2 plant completion - December 2027 Quarter (target)
- Mt Magnet Circuit 2 commercial production - March 2028 Quarter (target)
- Exploration programs at Gilbey's to test a possible Dalgaranga mill processing route - FY27 and FY28 (as stated)
Questions worth asking
- What makes up the A$280m versus A$350m Mt Magnet capex figures, and how much of the increase is inflation, scope enhancements and contingency?
- What are the NPV, IRR, capex and operating costs for Gilbey's and Lena, and what share of their ounces is Inferred?
- What is the Roe permitting timetable, and how would FY29-30 output change if Roe is delayed?
- How is the up to A$1.5Bn FY30 free cash flow built up, and what gold price, cost and volume assumptions sit behind it?
- What is the cash balance after the Edna May proceeds and July stamp duty, shown separately from gold and investment holdings?
What it means
For someone following Ramelius, this update is about growth and cost rather than new rock. Output is guided up from FY26's 192,182oz to 205-225koz in FY27 and to 560-610koz by FY30. Cost guidance is higher than last year's actual, and the Mt Magnet capex estimate has grown to about A$350m including contingency. Part of the growth relies on Rebecca-Roe permitting and on Inferred resources that the company says may not be realised. The cash generation claims depend on a A$5,500/oz gold assumption, which is below spot today. The Edna May proceeds and cash position give the company room, but no Appendix 5B is included here, so the detailed cash position is not yet known. This is general information, not a recommendation.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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