Results - ASX:EVN
Evolution FY26 profit A$1,475m, cash flow A$1,389m, 21.0c final dividend; FY27 AISC guided higher
Evolution reported FY26 statutory profit of A$1,475m and Group cash flow of A$1,389m, ending the year with A$1,347m cash against A$1,329m debt. The final dividend is 21.0 cents fully franked, taking the full year to 41.0 cents (about A$833m), and the target payout rises to 60% of Group cash flow. FY27 guidance is 660-730 koz of gold, but all-in sustaining cost is guided above FY26 levels.
(price sensitive) - Evolution Mining announced: "FY26 Full Year Financial results and Final Dividend" (7 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Statutory profit after tax was A$1,475m (up 59%) and underlying EBITDA was A$3,171m at a 57% margin (FY25: 51%).
- Group cash flow was A$1,389m (up 76%), and net mine cash flow was A$2,079m (up 101%).
- The final dividend is 21.0 cps fully franked (about A$427m), giving 41.0 cps for FY26 (about A$833m), and the payout target rises to 60% of Group cash flow from 50%.
- FY26 gold production was 715 koz (down 5%) and copper was 66 kt (down 14%), while AISC rose 9% to A$1,717/oz from A$1,572/oz.
- FY27 guidance is 660-730 koz gold, 63-70 kt copper and AISC of A$1,795-1,995/oz, based on a gold price of A$5,700/oz and copper of A$18,000/t.
- Cash of A$1,347m and an undrawn A$525m revolving facility mean no debt repayments are due until FY29, and the company is now unhedged after the final gold hedges were delivered.
- Evolution agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources for about A$213m in scrip, subject to a Carnaby scheme vote, and bought a 9.9% stake in Arizona Gold & Silver for A$12.1m.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Cash
- $1.3bn
- Debt
- $1.3bn
- Undrawn facilities
- $525m
- Shares on issue
- 2,031.1m
- Gold produced
- 715,000 oz
- Copper produced
- 66,000 t
- AISC
- A$1,717/oz (margin about A$4,502/oz at the day's gold price)
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance (the PDF does not say whether FY26 guidance was met): gold 660-730 koz; copper 63-70 kt; AISC A$1,795-1,995/oz on A$5,700/oz gold and A$18,000/t copper; sustaining capital A$265-325m; major mine development A$440-500m; major project capital A$570-650m; exploration A$130-160m; D&A A$1,000-1,155/oz. Production weighted to H2 FY27.
Full-year FY26 figures in A$, from the PDF. No Appendix 5B is attached, so burn, funding quarters, operating cash flow and exploration spend are not stated and are left blank. Cash of 1,347 and debt of 1,329 are as stated; net cash is shown as 19 in the table (cash less debt gives 18, consistent with rounding). Undrawn 525 is the revolving facility; the stated total liquidity of 1,873 is 1,347 plus 525 rounded. Operating mine cash flow (3,394) and net mine cash flow (2,079) are mine-level measures, not statutory operating cash flow, so they are not used as operating cash flow. Group cash flow of 1,389 is before dividends, debt repayments, equity raises and acquisitions. Production is shown as 715 koz gold and 66 kt copper on Evolution's share basis; the PDF does not state whether this is produced or sold ounces. Shares on issue (2,031.09m) come from DrillScore's database for 30 June 2026, not from the PDF; the dividend amount implies about 2,033m shares. Capital investment was 1,089m, term loan repayments 280m and dividends paid 668m. Cash is strong, with the balance sheet at net cash and no debt repayments due until FY29, but the net cash margin is thin at A$19m.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal positive, and on day 1 the stock moved +0.4% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: -3.8% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($13.65 on 18 Aug 2026), with day-1 volume 1.0x the 20-day average.
EVN's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, EVN rose on day 1 4 times and fell 5 times - an average move of -1.2%.
DrillScore's database holds no earlier price-sensitive reactions for EVN, so there is no stock-specific pattern to compare. Since the release close of A$13.65, the shares have been at A$13.02, about 4.6% lower. Over the same period the ASX gold index (XGD) was roughly flat at -0.6%, while the US gold miners fund GDX fell 8.2%, GDXJ fell 14.2% and the copper miners fund COPX fell 19.1%. The stock has fallen more than the ASX gold index but less than the US and copper miner funds. This describes past price moves and is not a prediction.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for EVN and it isn't advice.
After 41 other announcements read as 'positive', stocks moved +1.8% by day 1, +2.3% by day 5 and +1.1% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.8%
- Day 5
- +2.3%
- Day 20
- +1.1%
After its earlier announcements, EVN moved -1.2% by day 1, +0.8% by day 5 and +0.8% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- -1.2%
- Day 5
- +0.8%
- Day 20
- +0.8%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved +28.7% (rising). After 38 past gold announcements released into a rising gold index, stocks moved +1.9% by day 1, +2.1% by day 5 and -4.4% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.9%
- Day 5
- +2.1%
- Day 20
- -4.4%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,421 | US$3,886 | -12.1% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,219 | A$5,737 | -7.8% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.48 | US$6.09 | -6.1% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7108 | 0.6774 | -4.7% |
Gold has fallen since the release. COMEX gold is US$3,886/oz, down 12.1% from US$4,420.6 on 18 August, and gold in A$ is about A$5,737/oz, down from A$6,219. The weaker Australian dollar (US$0.6774, down 4.7%) has cushioned the A$ gold price. FY26 achieved gold was A$6,023/oz and FY27 AISC guidance assumes A$5,700/oz, so spot is now close to the guidance deck, having been well above it at release. Copper at US$6.09/lb is still above the US$5.72/lb (A$18,000/t) deck behind FY27 guidance, though it is down 6.1% since release. Sector mood has weakened: the US dollar index is up 3.8%, the US 10-year yield has risen to 5.154%, GDX is down 8.2%, GDXJ down 14.2%, COPX down 19.1% and silver down 23.2%. The ASX gold index (XGD) is down only 0.6%. These results are backward-looking; the FY27 margin story depends on where gold trades relative to the A$5,700/oz deck.
Against EVN's own history
DrillScore's database holds no earlier drilling intercepts or capital raisings for EVN. Its 30 June 2026 record matches this announcement for cash (A$1,347.5m), undrawn facilities (A$525m), gold (714,728 oz), copper (65,636 t) and AISC (A$1,717/oz), but its debt (A$1,380.58m) does not match the PDF's A$1,329m, so the PDF figure is used. Its 31 March 2026 record (cash A$13m, 276.12m shares) looks like a data error and has not been relied on. The database's 2,636.58 operating cash flow for the June quarter is not stated in the PDF and is not used. The database company profile mentions a stake in Cadia, but this announcement lists Northparkes (80%) and does not mention Cadia. Compared with FY25, gold output fell 5% (751 to 715 koz), copper fell 14% (76 to 66 kt) and AISC rose from A$1,572 to A$1,717/oz. Cash moved from net debt of A$849m to net cash of A$19m over the year.
Risks & caveats
- FY27 AISC guidance of A$1,795-1,995/oz is above FY26's A$1,717/oz, and the gold range of 660-730 koz straddles FY26 output of 715 koz.
- Production is weighted to the second half of FY27, relying on the Cowal underground ramp-up and new mining areas at Red Lake.
- Guidance assumes gold at A$5,700/oz. Spot is now about A$5,737/oz, down from about A$6,219/oz at release, and the company is unhedged.
- Sustaining, major mine development and major project capital guidance all rise, alongside a higher payout target, so cash will be tighter if gold falls.
- The Carnaby deal still needs Carnaby shareholder approval, and the Ernest Henry rainfall event cost about 12 koz gold and 8 kt copper in FY26.
What's next
- Final dividend 21.0 cps fully franked: ex-dividend date - 9 September 2026
- Final dividend record date - 10 September 2026
- DRP election notices due for the final dividend (new shares, no discount) - 11 September 2026
- Dividend payment date - 2 October 2026
- Mt Rawdon finishes processing remaining low-grade stockpiles - September 2026 quarter
- Carnaby scheme meeting on the approximately A$213m scrip acquisition - late October to early November 2026
- Triple Flag amended stream agreement: A$120m upfront payment to Evolution (E44 optionality) - December 2026
- John Vann joins the Board as Non-Executive Director; Thomas McKeith retires at the 2026 AGM - effective 1 December 2026 (Vann); 2026 AGM (McKeith)
- FY27 production weighted to H2, linked to Cowal underground ramp-up and Red Lake new mining areas - FY27 second half
- Bert development project at Ernest Henry: first production - FY29
Questions worth asking
- What drives the rise in FY27 AISC to A$1,795-1,995/oz from A$1,717/oz, and how much of it is the A$5,700/oz gold assumption versus current spot?
- How much of FY27 output depends on the Cowal underground ramp-up and the Red Lake new mining areas, and what is the first-half versus second-half split?
- With a 60% payout target and sizeable capital guidance, how much cash is left after dividends if gold stays near current levels?
- What is the timetable and condition set for the Carnaby scheme, and how many new shares will the A$213m scrip consideration create?
- When will the A$120m Triple Flag upfront payment be received, and how does it fit with development of the E44 deposit?
What it means
For someone following Evolution, the announcement is strong on the evidence it contains: profit, cash flow and the dividend are reported with supporting figures, and the balance sheet moved to net cash. The forward-looking part is less clear-cut, with FY27 costs guided higher, output weighted to the second half and a larger capital programme. Gold, copper and the miner funds have all fallen since the release, so the coming months will depend heavily on metal prices, which this announcement cannot tell you. The Carnaby scheme vote, the Triple Flag payment and the dividend timetable are the next checkpoints. This is general information, not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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