Announcement - ASX:EVN
Evolution investor briefing restates FY27 guidance and reserves; one Ernest Henry copper interval cited
Evolution's 15 September 2026 investor briefing mostly restates known material: FY27 guidance of 660-730koz gold and 63-70kt copper, and resources and reserves at 31 December 2025. The only new drilling item is a headline Ernest Henry interval of 61.3m at 1.26% copper and 0.77g/t gold, which is cross-referenced to a separate announcement and not detailed here. Nothing in this document changes the production, cost or cash picture.
(price sensitive) - Evolution Mining announced: "2026 Investor Briefing Presentations" (25 pages) - read the original
Score
What investors must know
- FY27 guidance is reaffirmed: 660-730koz gold, 63-70kt copper and AISC of A$1,795-1,995/oz, based on gold at A$5,700/oz and copper at A$18,000/t (US$5.72/lb).
- FY26 gold of about 693koz on a continuing-operations basis, with AISC of A$1,717/oz, is read from the presentation charts (slides 5 and 8).
- Ernest Henry headline: 61.3m at 1.26% Cu and 0.77g/t Au in a mineralisation extension about 900m below the main production area, cross-referenced to a separate 15 September 2026 announcement.
- The drilling cannot be checked from this document: no hole IDs, depths, cut-off, dilution, drill-hole table or JORC Table 1 are included.
- Gold resources at 31 December 2025 total 1,300Mt at 0.75 g/t for 31Moz (30Moz at December 2024); gold reserves total 460Mt at 0.79 g/t for 12Moz.
- Copper growth rests on Ernest Henry (Bert, Greater Duchess) and Northparkes (E22, mill study due end FY27), and Carnaby remains subject to conditions.
The drill intercepts, normalised
Excellent - a genuinely strong hit by any ASX standard.
How this hit compares
Better than 97% of the 39 copper intercepts DrillScore has decoded in the past 12 months.
The first copper drill result DrillScore has decoded for EVN - the next one will show whether it holds up.
Compare every hit, depth by depth and company by company - depth is down-hole, to the start of the interval.
How every hole did - one block per hole, coloured by its best hit
- Excellent 1
The hole reached 'good' or better.
Every interval, in numbers
Every interval as metal-metres: width x grade (gram-metres for gold, %-metres for copper). Gold bands are Stockhead's rule of thumb: over 50 good, 100-200 really good, 200-500 excellent, beyond that stellar (and under 10, low). Top share is how much of an interval comes from its richest sub-interval - the smearing check.
| Hole | From | Width | Grade | Metal-metres | Rating | Top share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | 61.3m | 1.26% Cu | Excellent | Ernest Henry mineralisation extension about 900m below current main... | ||
| - | - | 61.3m | 0.770 g/t Au | Modest | Same 61.3m interval as the copper row. Gold grade as stated on slide... |
Checked against the PDF. Every interval above is printed in the announcement itself - each width and grade was found, together, in the PDF's own text.
- True widths
- Not stated - intervals are down-hole
- Hole spacing
- Not stated. The result is described as a mineralisation extension at depth below the main production area, which suggests a deep extension test rather than infill.
- Depth
- Extension described as about 900m below the current main production area. Hole depth and vertical depth of the interval are not given.
Against the project's earlier holes
DrillScore holds no earlier Evolution intercepts, so no like-for-like comparison is possible. The presentation gives no earlier drilling figures to compare against.
Against similar explorers
Cannot be benchmarked on this document alone. A 61.3m interval at 1.26% copper and 0.77g/t gold would be a sizeable copper-gold interval if it holds up, but without hole data, cut-off or dilution its significance cannot be rated.
Gram-metre calculator - gram-metres explained - the leaderboard
Disclosure checks - the ASX's own focus areas
- Drill-hole table (collars, dip, azimuth, depth, every intercept)fail
Required for exploration results on a material project.
- JORC Table 1, Section 1 - sampling techniques and datafail
- JORC Table 1, Section 2 - reporting of exploration resultsfail
- Competent person statementfail
- Metal equivalents with NO recovery figurefail
The ASX's position: equivalents aren't appropriate without metallurgical recovery information, and with none given it assumes 100% recovery.
- Balanced reporting - low and high grades both showncaution
Only one headline interval is shown, with no count of holes drilled or reported and no low or nil results. It cannot be told whether this represents the wider program. The full release may cover this, but it is not in this document.
- No visual estimates - assays onlypass
- Down-hole widths onlycaution
Down-hole intervals can overstate how thick the mineralisation really is.
Red flags and notes
The announcement does not give every hole's collar position, dip, azimuth, depth and result (including nil results), which the ASX expects for material exploration results.
JORC Table 1 sections 1 and 2 are missing - the ASX requires both with material exploration results.
The JORC Code requires a Competent Person to take responsibility for exploration results, resources and reserves.
Only one headline interval is shown, with no count of holes drilled or reported and no low or nil results. It cannot be told whether this represents the wider program. The full release may cover this, but it is not in this document.
No true width is stated. The 61.3m is given as an interval width with no statement of whether it is down-hole or true.
The 61.3m at 1.26% Cu and 0.77g/t Au interval appears only as a slide headline with a reference to a separate 15 September 2026 announcement. This document gives no hole ID, depth, cut-off, dilution or JORC Table 1, so the detail the ASX requires cannot be checked from it.
Ernest Henry capacity steps (Bert ~6ktpa Cu and ~12koz Au; Greater Duchess ~10ktpa Cu and ~5koz Au from ~FY30) are stated as volumes. Greater Duchess is shown at exploration stage and is not yet owned, and no resource, reserve or study is cited for these rates. The indicative-only caveat is given, but the basis is not.
Northparkes underground inventory 'could support production into 2040+', Ernest Henry mine life beyond FY42 and Cowal E41 'significantly larger mineralisation' are stated without tonnes, grades or a JORC reference in this document.
The 'portfolio average return on investment of 18%' and the bubble chart of return on investment have no calculation basis in the presentation, and the AuEq and AISC-per-AuEq measures are described as supplementary and not reported measures.
Why these matter: JORC Table 1 - metal equivalents - balanced reporting - visual estimates
Money: can they follow it up?
- Gold produced
- 693,000 oz
- AISC
- A$1,717/oz (margin about A$4,368/oz at the day's gold price)
- Guidance
- FY27 group guidance reaffirmed (consistent with the June 2026 Quarter Report): gold 660-730koz; copper 63-70kt; AISC A$1,795-1,995/oz; sustaining capital A$265-325m; major mine development capital A$440-500m; major project capital A$570-650m; exploration A$130-160m. Based on gold at A$5,700/oz and copper at A$18,000/t. The presentation does not say whether guidance was met, raised or cut. Gold_oz is FY26 produced on a continuing-operations basis, read from the slide 5 bar chart (693koz, rounded) and excluding Mt Rawdon and Mt Carlton.
The presentation gives no quarterly cash flow and no Appendix 5B. The June 2026 cash balance of A$1,347m appears in the 19 August 2026 results and in DrillScore records, not in this PDF, so cash is left blank here. FY26 AISC of A$1,717/oz is from the slide 8 chart. The FY27 figures are guidance, not results. No capital raising is announced.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
Resource / reserve
- Tonnes
- 1,300.0 Mt
- Grade
- 0.75 g/t Au
- Contained metal
- 31.00 Moz
- What changed
- Restated from the 1 May 2026 Annual Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement, at 31 December 2025, not a new estimate. Gold Mineral Resources total 1,300Mt at 0.75 g/t for 31Moz, versus 1,200Mt at 0.77 g/t for 30Moz at December 2024. Gold Ore Reserves total 460Mt at 0.79 g/t for 12Moz, versus 430Mt at 0.82 g/t for 11Moz at December 2024. Copper Mineral Resources total 700Mt at 0.60% Cu for 4,200kt, versus 720Mt at 0.61% Cu for 4,400kt. The company states no new information affects the estimates.
How the price reacted
DrillScore 60 (bottom 38% of drill results), and on day 1 the stock moved 0.0% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: -1.7% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($13.55 on 14 Sep 2026), with day-1 volume 2.1x the 20-day average.
EVN's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, EVN rose on day 1 5 times and fell 4 times - an average move of -0.8%.
DrillScore has no share price reactions on record for Evolution's earlier price-sensitive news, so no pattern can be described. The share price is A$13.02 now against A$13.55 at the prior close, a smaller fall than the GDX and GDXJ over the same period. The database cannot separate company-specific effects from sector moves, and this does not indicate how the market will respond to future news.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for EVN and it isn't advice.
Only 1 other drill results rated 'Solid' have traded so far - too few to show a pattern.
After its earlier announcements, EVN moved -0.8% by day 1, +1.7% by day 5 and -0.3% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- -0.8%
- Day 5
- +1.7%
- Day 20
- -0.3%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved +5.0% (rising). After 38 past gold announcements released into a rising gold index, stocks moved +2.0% by day 1, +2.6% by day 5 and -4.4% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +2.0%
- Day 5
- +2.6%
- Day 20
- -4.4%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,352 | US$3,886 | -10.7% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,085 | A$5,737 | -5.7% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.33 | US$6.09 | -3.8% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7152 | 0.6774 | -5.3% |
At the release, gold was US$4,351.9/oz and A$6,084.87/oz. Now it is US$3,886.3/oz and A$5,737.08/oz, close to the A$5,700/oz basis used for FY27 guidance. Copper is US$6.09/lb, down from US$6.33/lb at release but above the US$5.72/lb guidance basis and up 19.7% on a year ago. The AUD is weaker (US$0.6774 from US$0.7152), the US dollar index is higher (103.41 from 99.46) and the US 10-year yield is up to 5.154%. Gold miner funds have fallen since the release (GDX -13.3%, GDXJ -18.1%, COPX -19.1%), while the XGD (-3.6%) and ASX 200 (+3.8%) moved less, so the sector mood has been weaker for miners. These figures show the context, not a forecast.
Against EVN's own history
DrillScore holds no earlier Evolution intercepts, so this is the first on record for the drilling comparison. The June 2026 quarter entries in DrillScore show cash of about A$1,347m, debt of A$1,329m to A$1,381m, undrawn facilities of A$525m, 2,031.09m shares and FY26 AISC of A$1,717/oz, which match this presentation's AISC. The 19 August 2026 results flagged a higher FY27 AISC, and the FY27 range here is consistent with that. The March 2026 quarter entry (cash 13, 276.12m shares) looks like a data error and has not been used. No capital raising is on record.
Risks & caveats
- The headline copper-gold interval is a single cross-referenced result with no hole data here, so its size and representativeness cannot be judged.
- Greater Duchess is shown as an exploration-stage bar, yet its copper and gold rates are given as production volumes, and the Carnaby acquisition is not yet complete.
- AISC guidance assumes gold at A$5,700/oz. Spot gold is about A$5,737/oz now, but copper is about US$6.09/lb against the US$5.72/lb guidance basis; the guidance is not updated.
- Several claims ('significantly larger mineralisation', 'sector leading margins', 'investment grade balance sheet') are adjectives without supporting figures in this document.
- Metal-equivalent production and cost figures (AuEq, AISC per AuEq) are described as supplementary and are given without metal prices or recoveries.
What's next
- Full Ernest Henry discovery and exploration announcement (the 15 September 2026 release cross-referenced here) and any follow-up drilling - not stated
- Carnaby Resources scheme completion, subject to shareholder, court and regulatory approvals - not stated
- Northparkes mill expansion study - end FY27
- Red Lake tailings reprocessing study completion - end of FY27
- Ernest Henry Bert ramp-up - from FY29
- FY27 production outcome, weighted to the second half - FY27
Questions worth asking
- What are the hole IDs, depths, from and to, cut-off and dilution for the 61.3m at 1.26% Cu and 0.77g/t Au interval, and how many holes make up the program?
- What Mineral Resource, reserve or study supports the Greater Duchess rates of about 10ktpa copper and 5koz gold from around FY30?
- What metal prices, recoveries and formula sit behind the AuEq production figures on slide 5 and the AISC per AuEq on slide 8?
- Why does the FY26 gold figure in the charts (about 693koz, continuing operations) differ from the company's June 2026 quarter total, and which assets are excluded?
- When are the Carnaby scheme conditions expected to be met, and what happens to the copper growth plan if they are not?
What it means
For someone following Evolution, this briefing mainly reconfirms known numbers: FY27 guidance, the 31 December 2025 reserves and resources, and the copper growth pipeline. The one new drilling item is a headline copper-gold interval at Ernest Henry, but without hole data in this document its size and quality cannot be checked. The more useful information will be in the full 15 September discovery announcement, the FY27 production outcomes and progress on the Carnaby scheme. This is general information only, not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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