Quarterly - ASX:EVN
Evolution September quarter: 154koz gold, A$1,653/oz AISC, A$1,470M cash; FY27 guidance held
Evolution produced 153,616oz of gold and 17,915t of copper in the September 2026 quarter at a group AISC of A$1,653/oz, and ended with cash of A$1,470M. FY27 guidance was held, but the CEO called the start slower than expected, and the Mungari and Red Lake costs rose above their guidance ranges. The report contains no new drilling, resource or reserve; the one drill intercept it cites was first released on 15 September 2026.
(price sensitive) - Evolution Mining announced: "September 2026 Quarterly Report" (14 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Group produced 153,616oz of gold (154koz rounded) and 17,915t of copper, down from 180koz and 19kt in the June quarter.
- Group AISC was A$1,653/oz, below the low end of FY27 group guidance of A$1,795-1,995/oz; the company puts the margin at 73%.
- Cash rose A$123M to A$1,470M, giving net cash of A$141M; the A$429M final dividend was paid on 2 October 2026, after quarter end.
- Group cash flow of A$185M and net mine cash flow of A$466M were both lower than the June quarter (A$374M and A$500M).
- Mungari (A$3,172/oz) and Red Lake (A$4,349/oz) AISC sit above their FY27 ranges of A$2,500-2,650/oz and A$3,100-3,300/oz; Red Lake gold fell to 21koz from 32koz.
- FY27 guidance is maintained at 660-730koz gold, 63-70kt copper and A$1,795-1,995/oz AISC, with production weighted to the second half.
- No new drill results or Mineral Resource or Ore Reserve estimate are reported; the Ernest Henry 61.3m copper-gold interval is repeated from 15 September 2026.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-09-30
- Cash
- $1.5bn
- Undrawn facilities
- $525m
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $24.0m
- Shares on issue
- 2,044.5m
- Gold produced
- 153,616 oz
- Copper produced
- 17,915 t
- AISC
- A$1,653/oz (margin about A$4,352/oz at the day's gold price)
- Guidance
- FY27 group guidance maintained across all measures: gold 660-730koz, copper 63-70kt, AISC A$1,795-1,995/oz, sustaining capital A$265-325M, major mine development A$440-500M, major project capital A$570-650M, exploration A$130-160M and D&A A$1,000-1,155/oz. The CEO called the first quarter a slower start than expected. Mungari and Red Lake AISC are above their FY27 ranges.
Gold produced of 153,616oz and copper produced of 17,915t are from Appendix 1 (Group column, including Mt Rawdon); the headline rounds gold to 154koz. Gold sold was 155,864oz. The report has no Appendix 5B, so burn, funding quarters and statutory operating cash flow are not stated. Operating mine cash flow of A$775M is a company measure before tax, working capital and corporate costs, so it is not entered as operating cash flow. Cash of A$1,470M and undrawn revolver of A$525M (available to 2028) come from the cash flow table. Gross debt is not stated in this report; DrillScore's history shows A$1,329M at 30 June 2026. Exploration spend of A$24M is the group figure in the report. The A$429M final dividend (A$423M cash) was paid on 2 October 2026, after quarter end, so it will hit the December quarter. Financial data is unaudited, as the report says. No Appendix 5B or capital raising is in this report.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved -1.2% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +1.1% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($12.96 on 13 Oct 2026), with day-1 volume 1.0x the 20-day average.
EVN's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, EVN rose on day 1 5 times and fell 4 times - an average move of -0.8%.
DrillScore has no recorded share price reaction to earlier Evolution news, so no past pattern can be described. The close before release was A$12.96 (13 October) and the price now is A$13.02. Over the same period the S&P/ASX 300 Metals and Mining index fell 3.2%, GDX fell 6.4%, COPX fell 18.0% and the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index fell 0.9%. The 14 October trading reaction is not in the supplied data. This describes the price since release and is not a forecast.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for EVN and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.6% by day 1, +0.9% by day 5 and +0.7% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.6%
- Day 5
- +0.9%
- Day 20
- +0.7%
After its earlier announcements, EVN moved -0.3% by day 1, +1.0% by day 5 and -1.3% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- -0.3%
- Day 5
- +1.0%
- Day 20
- -1.3%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved -1.5% (steady). After 13 past gold announcements released into a steady gold index, stocks moved +1.3% by day 1, -0.9% by day 5 and +14.4% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.3%
- Day 5
- -0.9%
- Day 20
- +14.4%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,177 | US$3,886 | -7.0% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,005 | A$5,737 | -4.5% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.68 | US$6.09 | -8.8% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6956 | 0.6774 | -2.6% |
At the 13 October close, before release, gold was US$4,177/oz (A$6,005/oz) and copper US$6.68/lb. Spot gold in A$ sat above the A$5,700/oz gold price used for FY27 AISC guidance, and it is still above it at A$5,737/oz now. The copper price fell 8.8% to US$6.09/lb since release, and the copper deck of $18,000/t sits well below the A$20,876/t achieved in the quarter. Margins at a A$1,653/oz AISC look wide against either gold price. Sector mood has turned against miners since release: silver fell 17%, the US dollar index rose 1.2%, the Australian dollar fell 2.6%, and the US 10-year yield is about 5.15%. GDX fell 6.4%, GDXJ fell 10.5% and COPX fell 18.0%.
Against EVN's own history
DrillScore's database holds two intercepts from 15 September 2026: the Ernest Henry copper-gold extension (61.3m @ 1.26% Cu, 77.2 %-m; 61.3m @ 0.77g/t Au, 47.2 g-m). This report repeats them, so it adds no new drilling. Opening cash of A$1,347M matches the database for 30 June 2026. The database's 30 June 2026 AISC of A$1,717/oz differs from the 1,706 shown for FY26 Q4 in this report's chart. The database entry for 31 March 2026 (cash of 13, 276.12m shares) does not match the A$1,371M closing cash in this report and should be checked. Shares on issue rose from 2,031.09m (database, June 2026) to 2,044.55m at 30 September 2026, and the report does not explain the increase. The 19 August results flagged a higher FY27 AISC; this quarter's 1,653 sits below the FY27 group range, and guidance was held rather than cut.
Risks & caveats
- The CEO describes a slower-than-expected start, and FY27 guidance depends on output rising in later quarters, led by the Cowal underground ramp-up and new Red Lake mining areas.
- Mungari gold output fell to 40koz after multiple unplanned power interruptions, and Red Lake had about 60 unplanned power outages in the quarter.
- Ernest Henry's record net mine cash flow of A$186M includes A$24M of partial insurance proceeds.
- Evolution is fully unhedged on gold and copper, so margins move directly with spot prices.
- Cowal's August rainfall, a contractor changeover in underground mining and a sharp rise in E42 waste stripping weighed on near-term output.
What's next
- Carnaby Resources scheme meeting (Evolution acquisition) - 26 October 2026, as stated in the report
- Carnaby acquisition completion, if the vote passes - Expected by mid-November 2026, as stated in the report
- Cowal Regal portal completion (second underground access) - By end December 2026
- Clisbako Project drilling to begin - December quarter 2026
- Northparkes expansion study and E44 satellite orebody study completion - By end FY27
- Northparkes Concentrate Regrind and Filtration Project completion - Q1 FY29
Questions worth asking
- Can Mungari and Red Lake bring AISC back within their FY27 ranges, given the Q1 AISC of A$3,172/oz and A$4,349/oz and the power outage problems?
- What was the outcome of the 26 October Carnaby scheme vote, did completion occur, and how many Evolution shares were issued?
- What is gross debt at 30 September 2026 after the A$429M dividend, and what is the repayment profile?
- What caused shares on issue to rise from about 2,031m to 2,044.5m, beyond the DRP?
- What are the statutory operating cash flow and the expensed and capitalised split of exploration spend in the next Appendix 5B?
What it means
For someone following Evolution, this quarter shows a company with strong group margins and a stronger cash position, but with lower output and higher costs at two operations. Guidance was held, but management itself says the start was slower than expected, so the next few quarters need to show output rising. The report has no new drilling, resource or reserve, so the exploration upside it mentions rests on results first released on 15 September. The Carnaby acquisition and the A$429M dividend paid in October are the main items that will change the cash and share count. This is general information, not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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