Quarterly - ASX:SFR
Sandfire Sep quarter: 38.9kt CuEq, FY27 guidance kept; La Juliana reports thick sulphide intercepts
Sandfire produced 38.9kt of copper equivalent in the September quarter, 25% of the FY27 guidance mid-point, and kept all FY27 guidance. Net cash fell to US$342M after a US$117M dividend, and the first La Juliana intercepts in this report show 22m to 30m of zinc-rich massive sulphide, but gold assays and a geophysical survey are still pending.
(price sensitive) - Sandfire Resources announced: "September 2026 Quarterly Report" (15 pages) - read the original
Score
What investors must know
- Group copper equivalent production was 38.9kt in the September quarter, 25% of the FY27 guidance mid-point and down 19% on the June quarter's 48.3kt; all FY27 guidance was kept.
- Motheo's underlying unit cost fell to US$48/t, helped by negative treatment and refining charges and deferred waste stripping, while MATSA's rose to US$95/t on an equipment maintenance cycle and a strong euro.
- Net cash fell to US$342M from US$353M after a US$117M fully franked dividend, with no debt and a US$650M revolver undrawn to March 2029.
- La Juliana drilling reported three holes with 22.2m to 30.0m of polymetallic massive sulphide, including 22.5m at 0.9% Cu and 15.4% Zn in CCM-91; CCM-92 gold assays are still pending.
- Kalkaroo has 8.7km of a planned ~130km infill and extension program complete, with the pre-feasibility study still due in H2 FY28.
- Sandfire confirmed ongoing financial support for Sandfire America, owner of the Black Butte project, which is reviewing strategic options including a sale. No amount was stated.
The drill intercepts, normalised
Good - a solid, economic-looking hit, but not exceptional.
How this hit compares
Better than 67% of the 37 copper intercepts DrillScore has decoded in the past 12 months.
Fewer than five other copper hits decoded at deep (400-800 m) so far - not enough to rank it.
The first copper drill result DrillScore has decoded for SFR - the next one will show whether it holds up.
Compare every hit, depth by depth and company by company - depth is down-hole, to the start of the interval.
How every hole did - one block per hole, coloured by its best hit
- Good 3
All 3 holes reached 'good' or better.
The holes, side by side - schematic, best hole first
Each line is a hole drilled from the surface (top); each block is a reported interval at its down-hole depth, sized by its width and coloured by its rating. The holes are side by side for comparison, not at their real positions, and are drawn only as deep as their deepest reported interval. Hover a block for the numbers.
Every interval, in numbers
Every interval as metal-metres: width x grade (gram-metres for gold, %-metres for copper). Gold bands are Stockhead's rule of thumb: over 50 good, 100-200 really good, 200-500 excellent, beyond that stellar (and under 10, low). Top share is how much of an interval comes from its richest sub-interval - the smearing check.
| Hole | From | Width | Grade | Metal-metres | Rating | Top share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCM-91 | 311m | 22.5m | 0.900% Cu | Good | Multi-metal interval. to_m is from plus width. Down-hole width. Full... | ||
| CCM-91 | 311m | 22.5m | 15.4% Zn | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | |||
| CCM-91 | 311m | 22.5m | 3.80% Pb | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | |||
| CCM-91 | 311m | 22.5m | 0.700 g/t Au | Modest | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | ||
| CCM-91 | 311m | 22.5m | 85.2 g/t Ag | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | |||
| CCM-92 | 416m | 22.2m | 1.00% Cu | Good | Multi-metal interval. to_m is from plus width. Gold assays and DHEM... | ||
| CCM-92 | 416m | 22.2m | 12.0% Zn | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | |||
| CCM-92 | 416m | 22.2m | 3.80% Pb | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | |||
| CCM-92 | 416m | 22.2m | 127.4 g/t Ag | Same interval as the Cu row. Gold not yet reported (assays pending). | |||
| CCM-94 | 323m | 30m | 0.400% Cu | Good | Multi-metal interval. to_m is from plus width. Lowest copper grade of... | ||
| CCM-94 | 323m | 30m | 10.1% Zn | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | |||
| CCM-94 | 323m | 30m | 4.90% Pb | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | |||
| CCM-94 | 323m | 30m | 0.900 g/t Au | Modest | Same interval as the Cu row. to_m is from plus width. | ||
| CCM-94 | 323m | 30m | 114.4 g/t Ag | Same interval as the Cu row. |
Checked against the PDF. Every interval above is printed in the announcement itself - each width and grade was found, together, in the PDF's own text.
- Holes reported
- 3 (1 pending)
- True widths
- Not stated - intervals are down-hole
- Hole spacing
- Follow-up drilling on both sides of discovery hole CCM-90, about 700m south-east of the Castillejitos orebody at Aguas Teñidas. Hole spacing is not stated. The target horizon was extended about 160m along strike. Downhole EM suggests massive sulphide strike of at least 350m, with the prospective horizon interpreted up to 2km. This reads as extension drilling rather than infill.
- Depth
- Down-hole intercept depths run from 310.5m to 438.0m. Vertical depths and total hole depths are not stated.
Against the project's earlier holes
DrillScore has no earlier copper intercepts on record, so these holes cannot be compared with earlier results. The announcement calls CCM-90 the discovery hole but does not give its grades, so the claimed extension cannot be checked from this report.
Against similar explorers
For polymetallic massive sulphide, 22m to 30m intervals grading 0.4% to 1.0% Cu plus 10% to 15% Zn are substantial, but zinc, lead and silver drive most of the value. Against ASX copper explorers generally, the copper grade is modest, so the economics depend on the metal mix and prices.
Gram-metre calculator - gram-metres explained - the leaderboard
Disclosure checks - the ASX's own focus areas
- Drill-hole table (collars, dip, azimuth, depth, every intercept)fail
Required for exploration results on a material project.
- JORC Table 1, Section 1 - sampling techniques and datafail
- JORC Table 1, Section 2 - reporting of exploration resultsfail
- Competent person statementfail
- Metal equivalents with NO recovery figurefail
The ASX's position: equivalents aren't appropriate without metallurgical recovery information, and with none given it assumes 100% recovery.
- Balanced reporting - low and high grades both shownfail
Only three holes are named (CCM-91, CCM-92, CCM-94), and the text says 'significant intercepts included', which signals a selection. CCM-93 appears in the numbering but is not mentioned, and there is no statement on whether it had a significant result. Holes drilled, nil results, cut-off and internal dilution are not given.
- No visual estimates - assays onlypass
- Down-hole widths onlycaution
Down-hole intervals can overstate how thick the mineralisation really is.
Red flags and notes
The announcement does not give every hole's collar position, dip, azimuth, depth and result (including nil results), which the ASX expects for material exploration results.
JORC Table 1 sections 1 and 2 are missing - the ASX requires both with material exploration results.
Only three holes are named (CCM-91, CCM-92, CCM-94), and the text says 'significant intercepts included', which signals a selection. CCM-93 appears in the numbering but is not mentioned, and there is no statement on whether it had a significant result. Holes drilled, nil results, cut-off and internal dilution are not given.
The JORC Code requires a Competent Person to take responsibility for exploration results, resources and reserves.
Only down-hole widths are given, described as thick zones. No true widths are stated.
A potential prospective horizon strike of up to 2km is stated without tonnage or grade ranges or a basis for them.
Enriched NPF contact mineralisation at A4 is said to extend hundreds of metres west, but no hole IDs, intercepts or grades are given to check it.
The production CuEq figure is on a contained metal basis. MATSA's Q1 payable CuEq was 19.2kt against 22.7kt contained, so the headline overstates payable output.
The CEO quote says the initial 9km of drilling was completed, while the operating section states 8.7km.
Why these matter: JORC Table 1 - metal equivalents - balanced reporting - visual estimates
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-09-30
- Cash
- $487m
- Debt
- $0
- Undrawn facilities
- $925m
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $22.8m
- Gold produced
- 341 oz
- Copper produced
- 26,987 t
- Revenue
- $683m
- Guidance
- FY27 production, cost and capital guidance maintained. Group CuEq 150-166kt contained, with Q1 at 38.9kt (25% of mid-point). Copper 99-111kt contained. Group underlying operating cost US$688M, with Q1 at 26%. Total capital expenditure US$299M, with Q1 at 21%. Motheo's cost guidance assumes diesel reverts to pre-conflict prices in H2 FY27.
The announcement's figures are in US$ (note e says all currency figures are USD). Converted at AUD/USD 0.703, the rate at release from the supplied context. Cash US$342M = A$486.5M. Undrawn US$650M revolver = A$924.6M. Revenue US$480M = A$682.8M. Cash-basis exploration, sustaining and growth capex US$74M = A$105.3M (shown as investing cash flow). Exploration spend US$16M (US$12M regional plus US$4M near-mine, as stated) = A$22.8M. Gold is 341 oz sold at MATSA, not produced. Copper 26,987t is contained. There is no Appendix 5B. Group operating cash flow, total outgoings and funding quarters are not stated. The chart shows MATSA operating cash flow of US$132M and Motheo US$126M, both before exploration and tax, and US$117M of dividends paid. AISC is not stated. Shares on issue are not stated in this report.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
DrillScore 38 (bottom 5% of drill results), and on day 1 the stock moved +0.8% against the gold index (XGD).
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($19.18 on 26 Oct 2026), with day-1 volume 1.7x the 20-day average.
SFR's past price-sensitive news
After 6 earlier announcements, SFR rose on day 1 3 times and fell 3 times - an average move of +0.1%; after quarterlies alone, -0.5%.
DrillScore has no share price reactions on record for Sandfire's earlier price-sensitive news, so we cannot say how the market has received this type of news. Since release the shares are up about 1.6% (A$19.18 to A$19.48). Over the same period COPX fell 6.2% and XGD rose 8.1%. These are descriptions of moves only and not a prediction.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for SFR and it isn't advice.
Only 2 other drill results rated 'Weak' have traded so far - too few to show a pattern.
After its earlier announcements, SFR moved +0.6% by day 1, +1.5% by day 5 and +3.6% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.6%
- Day 5
- +1.5%
- Day 20
- +3.6%
In the 20 trading days before this release copper moved -3.3% (falling). Too few past copper announcements released into a falling copper price have traded to show a pattern.
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,038 | US$3,886 | -3.8% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$5,745 | A$5,737 | -0.1% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.51 | US$6.09 | -6.4% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7030 | 0.6774 | -3.6% |
At release, copper was US$6.51/lb, above the FY27 price deck in the report (US$13,280/t, about US$6.02/lb). At US$6.09/lb now, the gap is much narrower. The CuEq figures use the same deck, so higher spot copper would lift reported CuEq and revenue. The AUD has fallen 3.6% to US$0.6774 since release, which lifts the A$ value of US$ revenue. About 90% of MATSA's cost base is in euros, so the euro matters more than the AUD for MATSA's margin. WTI fell 13% to US$88.56/bbl, easing the diesel pressure flagged for Motheo, though guidance still assumes diesel reverts to pre-conflict levels. The US dollar index rose 1.4% and the 10-year yield rose to 5.154%, both mild headwinds for metals. Since release, COPX is down 6.2% and GDX is up 0.8%, while the ASX gold index XGD is up 8.1%. Sandfire is a copper producer, so the copper miners fund is the closer comparison.
Against SFR's own history
DrillScore has no copper intercepts on record, so these La Juliana holes are the first to compare. Group CuEq output of 38.9kt compares with 48.3kt for the June quarter shown here, but DrillScore's July note recorded 47.6kt, so the June figure has been revised. Net cash of US$353M at June was recorded as A$504.2M. Our conversion of US$342M gives A$486.5M, a fall of about A$18M that combines the US$11M decline and FX differences. DrillScore's record shows A$157.9M of debt at March 2026, cleared by June. Two June-quarter entries in the database show different copper figures (105,736t and 34,224t). The 34,224t figure matches this report. No capital raisings are on record. Earlier analysed releases were positive or mixed on guidance, and this quarter keeps that pattern.
Risks & caveats
- Motheo's cost guidance assumes diesel returns to pre-conflict prices in H2 FY27, and the company flags elevated fuel prices as a risk.
- MATSA's Q1 underlying unit cost of US$95/t was 11% above a year earlier, and the company expects improvement only through the rest of FY27.
- The La Juliana extension rests on three named holes. Gold assays and a DHEM survey are pending, and this report has no cut-off or drill-hole table.
- Financial support for Black Butte is unquantified, and the outcome of the strategic review is unknown.
- Contained copper fell 21% on the June quarter, with lower MATSA ore grades cutting recoveries.
What's next
- H1 FY27 results, with a further update on La Juliana and A4 drilling and concept studies - H1 FY27 results (date not stated)
- Initial phase of MATSA's new tailings storage facility commissioned - Q2 FY27, as stated
- Commissioning and ramp-up of the 33MW solar facility at MATSA - H2 FY27
- Commissioning of the 21MW solar facility at Motheo - Q3 FY27
- Random Havilah RC drilling at the Homestead prospect, west of Kalkaroo - Q2 FY27
- Kalkaroo pre-feasibility study completion - H2 FY28
- Accelerated La Juliana and A4 drilling and concept level studies - not stated
Questions worth asking
- What is the full La Juliana drill-hole table with collars, dip, azimuth and depth, and why is CCM-93 not reported?
- What cut-off grade and internal dilution were used for the La Juliana intervals, and when will the CCM-92 gold assays be reported?
- What is the basis for the up to 2km strike extent, and will Sandfire publish tonnage or grade ranges for La Juliana?
- What were group operating cash flow and total cash outgoings for the quarter, and how will the Kalkaroo and La Juliana programs be funded?
- How much financial support has Sandfire committed to Sandfire America, and what is its exposure in a sale?
What it means
For someone following Sandfire, this is an operating update that kept guidance, with production at about a quarter of the year's target. Net cash fell modestly after a large dividend, and the company still carries no debt and has an undrawn revolver. The La Juliana results are the most new information. They show thick polymetallic intervals near MATSA, but they come from three named holes and lack the full drill table, cut-off and gold assays. Treat them as an early exploration lead rather than a resource. Cost pressure at MATSA and diesel exposure at Motheo are the main operating watch points. This is general information only, not personal advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: medium. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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