Results - ASX:SFR
Sandfire FY26 profit US$354M, net cash US$353M, 35c dividend; FY27 copper equivalent guidance 150-166kt
Sandfire reported record FY26 earnings, with revenue of US$1.65bn, statutory profit of US$354m, Underlying EBITDA of US$867m and net cash of US$353m, and declared a fully franked 35 cent final dividend. Output of 154.2kt copper equivalent was within guidance, but the company's first fatality occurred at MATSA and FY27 guidance points to higher unit costs and a 30% rise in capital spending. The release contains no new drill results; its exploration content is limited to spending figures and a Kalkaroo project update.
(price sensitive) - Sandfire Resources announced: "App 4E, FY26 Financial Results Overview and Annual Report" (250 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- FY26 sales revenue was US$1,653.7m, up 41%, helped by an achieved copper price of US$11,897/t and lower treatment and refining charges.
- Statutory profit after tax was US$354.3m (FY25: US$89.9m) and Underlying EBITDA was US$867.0m, up 64%, with Underlying Earnings of US$350.0m.
- Net cash was US$352.6m at 30 June 2026 after all US$234.0m of bank debt was repaid, and the US$650m corporate revolver is undrawn.
- Group copper equivalent output was 154.2kt, within the 149-165kt guidance range but only 98% of the midpoint; a contractor died in a MATSA underground incident on 25 February 2026.
- FY27 guidance is 150-166kt copper equivalent, Underlying Operating Costs of US$688m (MATSA US$90/t, Motheo US$47/t) and capital expenditure of US$299m, up 30%.
- The final dividend is 35 Australian cents per share, fully franked (about A$163.8m), the first dividend since 2022.
Disclosure checks - the ASX's own focus areas
- Drill-hole table (collars, dip, azimuth, depth, every intercept)n/a
- JORC Table 1, Section 1 - sampling techniques and datafail
- JORC Table 1, Section 2 - reporting of exploration resultsn/a
- Competent person statementpass
- Metal equivalents with NO recovery figurefail
The ASX's position: equivalents aren't appropriate without metallurgical recovery information, and with none given it assumes 100% recovery.
- Balanced reporting - low and high grades both shownn/a
No drill results are reported, so the balance test does not apply. The release refers to 'very encouraging' exploration results and a separate exploration update released on 26 August 2026, which are not reproduced here.
- No visual estimates - assays onlypass
Red flags and notes
The MATSA, Motheo and Black Butte resource and reserve tables show NSR values in $/t and grades, but the metal prices and cut-off grades behind them are not stated in this document. The JORC Table 1 detail is only available in the ASX releases referenced.
The copper equivalent formula and metal prices are shown for FY26 and FY27, but no metallurgical recovery for each metal is stated, so the equivalent implicitly assumes full recovery of zinc, lead and silver.
The headline FY26 output of 154.2kt uses FY26 prices, while the guidance table restates FY26 at FY27 prices (155.2kt). Both are disclosed, but investors comparing them need to note the different bases.
The report quotes Kalkaroo Mineral Resources (224Mt) and an Ore Reserve (100Mt) that are Havilah's, not Sandfire's. The company states they are not attributable to Sandfire, but they appear in the Sandfire report and could be read as Sandfire holdings.
Why these matter: JORC Table 1 - metal equivalents - balanced reporting - visual estimates
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Cash
- $493m
- Debt
- $0
- Undrawn facilities
- $909m
- Operating cash flow (quarter)
- $1.0bn
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $68.8m
- Shares on issue
- 466.9m
- Options, rights & convertibles
- 2.7m
- Copper produced
- 105,736 t
- Revenue
- $2.3bn
- Guidance
- FY26 copper equivalent 154.2kt, within the 149-165kt range set in July 2025 (98% of midpoint). FY27 guidance: 150-166kt copper equivalent (FY26 restated to 155.2kt at FY27 prices); Underlying Operating Costs US$688m (MATSA US$90/t, Motheo US$47/t); D&A US$369m; exploration US$68m; capex US$299m (up 30%). Guidance was met for FY26 and is set above FY26 for FY27.
The release reports in US$ and gives no single exchange rate, so all A$ figures are converted at AUD/USD 0.7155, the context rate on 25 August 2026. Cash is US$352.6m, operating cash flow US$746.8m, investing outflow US$234.9m, undrawn US$650m revolver and exploration cash payments US$49.2m (operating cash flow line). The June 2026 quarterly recorded cash of A$504.2m, implying a rate near 0.70 at 30 June, so the A$ cash figure here differs for conversion reasons. No Appendix 5B applies, so burn and funding quarters are not stated. Copper output of 105,736t is contained metal (MATSA 53,948t plus Motheo 51,788t); payable copper sold was 101,698t. Gold output is not reported in ounces. Shares on issue were 466,850,414 and performance rights 2,725,657 at 30 June. Kalkaroo stage 1 included 4,640,833 shares issued to Havilah as consideration, which is not a cash raising.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
Resource / reserve
- Tonnes
- 190.0 Mt
- Grade
- 1.20 % Cu (MATSA Mineral Resources, 31 December 2025)
- Contained metal
- 2,300.00 kt
- What changed
- MATSA Mineral Resources at 31 Dec 2025: 190Mt at 1.2% Cu for 2.3Mt contained copper, up from 170Mt at 1.3% for 2.2Mt a year earlier. MATSA Ore Reserves fell to 36Mt at 1.4% Cu (500kt contained copper) from 37Mt at 1.6% (570kt). Motheo T3 and A4 Ore Reserves are 43Mt at 0.89% Cu, and a maiden A1 Ore Reserve of 5.6Mt at 0.91% Cu and 7.4 g/t Ag was declared at 30 June 2026. Black Butte Johnny Lee Ore Reserve is 9.5Mt at 2.9% Cu and a maiden Lowry Ore Reserve is 4.7Mt at 2.1% Cu. The Measured plus Indicated share is not stated as a percentage.
How the price reacted
News signal positive, and on day 1 the stock moved +5.2% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +6.4% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($22.78 on 25 Aug 2026), with day-1 volume 2.3x the 20-day average.
SFR's past price-sensitive news
After 6 earlier announcements, SFR rose on day 1 3 times and fell 3 times - an average move of -0.5%.
DrillScore has no recorded price reactions to earlier Sandfire news, so no past pattern for this type of release can be described. The supplied share price data show A$22.78 at the 25 August close and A$19.48 now (about -14.5%), against about -0.9% for the ASX 200 and sharp falls in copper miner ETFs. The 52-week high is shown as about A$25, which may be truncated in the context. The price reaction on the release day itself is not supplied.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for SFR and it isn't advice.
After 41 other announcements read as 'positive', stocks moved +1.7% by day 1, +2.3% by day 5 and +0.9% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.7%
- Day 5
- +2.3%
- Day 20
- +0.9%
After its earlier announcements, SFR moved -0.3% by day 1, +0.9% by day 5 and +3.0% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- -0.3%
- Day 5
- +0.9%
- Day 20
- +3.0%
In the 20 trading days before this release copper moved +4.1% (rising). Too few past copper announcements released into a rising copper price have traded to show a pattern.
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,695 | US$3,886 | -17.2% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,561 | A$5,737 | -12.6% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.71 | US$6.09 | -9.2% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7155 | 0.6774 | -5.3% |
At the release (25 Aug close), copper was US$6.71/lb, above the FY27 price deck of US$13,280/t (about US$6.02/lb). It is about US$6.09/lb now, close to the deck. Silver was US$68.64/oz at release, above the US$58.9/oz deck, but is now US$49.12/oz, below it. The AUD has weakened from 0.7155 to 0.6774 against the USD, which affects A$ values of US$ earnings and A$ costs such as corporate G&A. Gold is a minor revenue line (about 0.5%), so the sharp fall in gold miner ETFs (GDX -22.6%, GDXJ -27.1%) and the XGD (-11.2%) mostly reflects sector sentiment rather than Sandfire's own sales. Copper miners (COPX -28.1%) fell more than Sandfire, and the ASX 200 was broadly flat. These are context points, not forecasts.
Against SFR's own history
Sandfire had a stronger H2 than H1: the H1 FY26 net profit was US$97.1m, implying about US$257m in H2 against the full-year US$354.3m. The company went from A$157.9m of debt at 31 March 2026 to nil at 30 June, and cash rose to A$504.2m on the June quarterly basis. Copper equivalent output rose 38% to 47.6kt in the June quarter after a 6% fall to 34.5kt in the March quarter. The company issued 4.64m shares to Havilah as Kalkaroo consideration, but made no cash raising. No earlier intercepts or price reactions are on record in the history supplied.
Risks & caveats
- Earnings depend heavily on metal prices. The FY27 price deck assumes copper at US$13,280/t and silver at US$58.9/oz, and silver has since traded well below that deck.
- MATSA contained copper in Ore Reserves fell from 570kt to 500kt over the year as mining depletion outpaced replacement.
- Unit costs rise in FY27 and the Euro:USD assumption moves from 1.17 to 1.15, so costs are sensitive to currency and diesel prices.
- Kalkaroo still requires Stage 2 consideration of A$105m to earn 80%, and the PFS and about 130km of drilling add spending before any development decision.
- The MATSA fatality led the Board to apply a 10-point negative modifier to the FY26 short-term incentive scorecard, and the safety record is still under review.
What's next
- Kalkaroo infill and extension drilling (about 130km) and pre-feasibility study - PFS completion expected H2 FY28, as stated
- MATSA new tailings facility (IGT) begins tailings deposition - December 2026, per the Remuneration Report
- MATSA 33MW solar facility commissioning - H2 FY27, as stated
- Motheo 21MW solar facility commissioning - Q3 FY27, as stated
- Black Butte strategic review outcome - Q1 FY27, as stated in the report
- Kalkaroo Stage 2 consideration and earn-in decision - Within 24 months of 6 February 2026, or on PFS completion
Questions worth asking
- What recovery assumptions sit behind the copper equivalent figures for FY26 (154.2kt, restated 155.2kt) and FY27 (150-166kt)?
- How will the US$299m FY27 capital programme and the Kalkaroo PFS be funded if copper prices fall, given net cash of US$352.6m and the undrawn US$650m revolver?
- What metal prices and cut-off grades underpin the MATSA, Motheo and Black Butte NSR values, and where is the full JORC Table 1 for each estimate?
- What did the MATSA fatality investigation find, and how will the Magdalena insourcing and tailings facility transition affect FY27 unit costs?
What it means
For someone following Sandfire, this release shows a strong balance sheet and record earnings, but those earnings depend on copper and by-product prices, and the costs of growth are rising in FY27. The Kalkaroo earn-in, the drilling programme and a stronger Ore Reserve base are the main things to track, along with the safety record after the MATSA fatality. Since the release, metal prices and sector stocks have fallen, which is a reminder that earnings momentum and share price can diverge. This is general information only and not advice on whether to buy, sell or hold.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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