Quarterly - ASX:SFR
Sandfire March quarter: CuEq output 34.5kt, down 6%; FY26 guidance kept, lower half expected
Sandfire's March quarter copper equivalent output was 34.5kt, down 6% on the December quarter, after heavy rain, unplanned maintenance and a slower move to higher grade ore at Motheo. FY26 guidance of 149-165kt was kept, with the Group now expected in the lower half, and Motheo is tracking to the bottom of its range. Net cash rose to US$76M (about A$106M at the rate used here) after payments to Havilah for Kalkaroo. A contractor died at the Magdalena mine in February.
(price sensitive) - Sandfire Resources announced: "March 2026 Quarterly Report" (16 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Group copper equivalent output was 34.5kt in the March quarter, down 6% on the December quarter's 36.6kt, taking the year to date to 106.5kt against FY26 guidance of 149-165kt.
- MATSA produced 21.7kt, down 12%, after unusually high rain and unplanned maintenance, while Motheo produced 12.8kt, up 6%, but below plan because the move to higher grade ore was delayed.
- Reaching the bottom of the 149kt Group range needs about 42.5kt in Q4 (149 less 106.5kt year to date), above any quarter this year; the highest was 36.6kt in Q2.
- Motheo's bottom-of-range call (58kt) implies about 19.5kt in Q4 (58 less 38.5kt year to date), against 12.8kt in Q3. These figures are simple subtractions from the stated numbers, not company forecasts.
- Net cash was US$76M at 31 March, up from US$13M at 31 December, with cash of US$189M and debt of US$113M, after A$46.5M paid to Havilah and US$26.1M of Motheo tax instalments.
- Underlying EBITDA was US$220M and the Group's underlying EBITDA margin was 54%, on unaudited sales revenue of US$408M.
- Kalkaroo: an upfront A$84.2M (A$31.5M cash plus 4,640,833 Sandfire shares) for an exclusive right to buy an 80% interest, with a further A$105M payable within 24 months and a minimum A$30M regional exploration spend over two years.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-03-31
- Cash
- $264m
- Debt
- $158m
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $21.0m
- Gold produced
- 725 oz
- Copper produced
- 22,868 t
- Revenue
- $570m
- Guidance
- FY26 Group CuEq guidance of 149-165kt was kept (set at plus or minus 5% of a 157kt midpoint), with output now expected in the lower half. MATSA is expected to be comfortably in the lower half of 91-101kt, and Motheo at the bottom of 58-64kt. Underlying operating unit costs are expected to be materially aligned with guidance of $86/t (MATSA) and $44/t (Motheo). Motheo ore processing guidance was raised to 5.8Mt from 5.6Mt, and Group capex was cut to $225M from $240M, the latter flagged as a recent $15M reduction. Gold of 725oz is ounces sold by MATSA in the quarter. Copper of 22,868t is contained metal produced.
The company reports in US$ (its notes say all currency figures are USD unless stated, and the A$46.5M Havilah payment is stated in A$). Conversions use AUD/USD 0.7156, the 22 April 2026 rate from the supplied context, since the announcement gives no rate. Cash US$189M = A$264.1M; debt US$113M = A$157.9M (excludes capitalised costs, leases and accrued interest); net cash US$76M = A$106.2M; revenue US$408M = A$570.2M. Exploration is US$15M (regional US$9M plus near mine US$6M, summed from the stated figures) = A$21.0M. Appendix 5B is not included, so operating cash flow, outgoings, undrawn facilities and funding quarters are not given. Q3 net cash rose on strong underlying cash flow, offset by A$46.5M to Havilah and US$26.1M of Botswana tax. The company does not state its operating cash flow for the quarter. Its Q4 tax payment of about $35M and the Kalkaroo commitments still have to be funded.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved -2.9% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +12.5% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($17.87 on 22 Apr 2026), with day-1 volume 1.1x the 20-day average.
SFR's past price-sensitive news
After 6 earlier announcements, SFR rose on day 1 4 times and fell 2 times - an average move of +1.1%; after quarterlies alone, +1.5%.
The database holds no recorded share price reactions to Sandfire's earlier price-sensitive news, so no pattern can be drawn from past moves. Its last three analysed announcements (9 April production, 19 February H1 result, 22 January December quarterly) each scored 50 (mixed). Since the release, the close was A$17.87 on 22 April and the price is A$19.48 now, about 9% higher, while the copper miners' ETF (COPX) is down 18.5% and the copper price is little changed. These are observations of past and current prices only, not a view on the share price.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for SFR and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.6% by day 1, +0.9% by day 5 and +0.3% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.6%
- Day 5
- +0.9%
- Day 20
- +0.3%
After its earlier announcements, SFR moved -0.2% by day 1, +2.2% by day 5 and +2.6% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- -0.2%
- Day 5
- +2.2%
- Day 20
- +2.6%
In the 20 trading days before this release copper moved +10.3% (rising). Too few past copper announcements released into a rising copper price have traded to show a pattern.
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,753 | US$3,886 | -18.2% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,642 | A$5,737 | -13.6% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.12 | US$6.09 | -0.5% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7156 | 0.6774 | -5.3% |
At the release date copper was US$6.12/lb (about US$13,490/t), and it is US$6.09/lb now, roughly US$13,400/t (6.09 times 2,204.6 lb per tonne). That is well above the June 2025 price deck behind the copper equivalent figures (Cu US$9,871/t, Ag US$36.9/oz), so spot margins look stronger than the deck. Copper hedges are about US$12,834/t on average for FY26 and FY27 (US$12,697/t for FY26), so hedged tonnes sit below spot. Silver was US$77.89/oz at release and US$49.12/oz now, a fall of 37%. FY26 silver hedges are at US$82/oz, and silver is the largest by-product driver of MATSA's low C1 cost, so this matters. Sector mood weakened since release: COPX fell 18.5%, GDX 13.6% and the S&P/ASX 300 Metals and Mining index 5.8%, while the AUD fell 5.3% against the US dollar.
Against SFR's own history
The database has no earlier drill intercepts for Sandfire. Dec-25 quarter copper of 24,074t matches the comparative in the PDF, and Mar-26 output of 22,868t is down 5% on it. Net cash of US$13M at 31 December 2025 matches the H1 FY26 result (US$13.2M, 19 February 2026), so that figure is consistent. The two stored Dec-25 cash and debt rows (cash 194 or 204.2, debt 175.3 or 184.8, in A$m) do not reconcile to the PDF's US$137M cash and US$124M debt, or to the net cash figure. Those stored figures may be on a different basis, so I have not used them. Several items were already public before this report: the 9 April 2026 operations update (34.5kt output and the lower half guidance), the 6 February 2026 Kalkaroo agreement and the 13 November 2025 binding term sheet. The database shows no capital raisings. The Kalkaroo consideration includes 4,640,833 new shares issued as scrip, which is not a placement.
Risks & caveats
- A contractor died at the Magdalena mine on 25 February 2026, and the authorities are investigating. The TRIF rose to 1.5 from 1.3, with seven recordable injuries and five high potential incidents in the quarter.
- Motheo's volume and cost outlook depends on a higher grade ore feed of about 1.2% and on recoveries that were temporarily hit when A4 ore entered the blend.
- The Middle East conflict could raise fuel, freight and consumable costs, and diesel was about 15% of Motheo's operating costs in the first nine months of FY26.
- MATSA's low implied C1 unit cost of $0.29/lb relies on by-product credits, which move with silver and zinc prices. Silver and zinc are not fixed.
- Cash commitments are rising: Motheo's underlying effective tax rate is expected to reach 37-40%, about $35M of tax is due in Q4 FY26, and the Kalkaroo option and exploration commitments total A$135M.
What's next
- Motheo A1 pre-feasibility study completion - Q4 FY26
- Havilah starts regional drilling in the Curnamona Province - Q4 FY26
- MATSA new tailings storage facility available for tailings deposition - H1 FY27
- Motheo 21 MW solar facility operational - Q3 FY27
- Kalkaroo pre-feasibility study (planned cost about $70M) completion - H2 FY28
- Kalkaroo infill and extension RC and diamond drilling (about 130km) - not stated
Questions worth asking
- What did the June quarter and FY26 results show against the 149-165kt CuEq guidance, and how close did Motheo get to the bottom of its 58kt range?
- How much of the 42.5kt needed in Q4 to reach the Group guidance floor depends on Motheo's A4 grade and recovery, and what recovery is now being achieved?
- Did the Magdalena fatality or the investigation affect operations or production for the rest of FY26?
- What is the timing and currency of the Kalkaroo pre-feasibility study (about $70M), the A$105M option and the minimum A$30M regional spend, and how will they be funded?
- How much of MATSA's low C1 unit cost depends on silver and zinc by-product prices, and what is the exposure if silver stays well below the FY26 hedged price?
What it means
For someone following Sandfire, this quarterly describes a softer operating quarter than the company planned, a fatality that the company says it is responding to, and a balance sheet that remains net cash after large Kalkaroo payments. Much of the operating detail was already public from the 9 April update. FY26 guidance stays in range, but reaching the lower half now needs a clear step up in Q4, most of all at Motheo. The report is dated April 2026 and today is 14 November 2026, so the June quarter and FY26 full-year results will have updated these figures. Check those before relying on any number here. This is general information, not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: medium. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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