Sandfire June quarter: copper equivalent output up 38% to 47.6kt; FY27 guidance 150-166kt

What investors must know

1. Group CuEq output was 47.6kt in the June quarter, up 38% on the March quarter (34.5kt) and up from 41.8kt in the June 2025 quarter; FY26 totalled 154.2kt, within the 149-165kt guidance range.
2. Net cash was US$353M at 30 June 2026 (about A$504M at the 0.7001 release rate), up US$277M in the quarter, with no debt after the US$650M revolver was repaid.
3. Motheo's underlying unit cost rose to US$54/t in the quarter (US$44/t in March), which the company calls temporary, while its implied C1 cost fell 28% to US$0.70/lb.
4. MATSA's underlying unit cost fell 9% to US$86/t, with an implied C1 cost of US$0.47/lb, on record annualised throughput of 4.8Mt.
5. FY27 guidance is 150-166kt CuEq (MATSA 89-99kt, Motheo 61-67kt), assuming copper at US$13,280/t and a EUR:USD rate of 1.15. Unit costs are expected to rise only incrementally and capex about one-third.
6. Kalkaroo: US$5M was spent in Q4 towards a ~US$70M pre-feasibility study due in H2 FY28. The ~130km drilling program has started, but no assay results are reported.

Money: can they follow it up?

Period ending

2026-06-30

Cash

$504m

Debt

$0

Undrawn facilities

$928m

Exploration spend (quarter)

$10.0m

Gold produced

574 oz

Copper produced

34,224 t

Revenue

$820m

Guidance

FY26 CuEq 154.2kt against 149-165kt guidance (98% of midpoint), copper 105.7kt against 102-114kt, and underlying operating costs US$685M against US$639M (107%). FY27 guidance: CuEq 150-166kt, copper 99-111kt, zinc 96-106kt, lead 9.4-10.4kt, silver 5.6-6.2Moz. Unit costs expected to rise only incrementally; capex about one-third higher.

All company figures are US$ (note e). Money fields are converted to A$ at 0.7001, the AUD/USD rate at release (22 Jul 2026). At the 0.6774 rate on 14 Nov 2026, net cash would be about A$521M. Cash is US$353M and debt is nil (excludes leases and accrued interest). Cash flow before debt service was US$282M: MATSA operating US$178M plus Motheo operating US$224M, less exploration, sustaining and growth capex US$71M, leases US$6M, tax US$41M and other US$2M. Debt repayments were US$113M and financing costs US$5M. Group operating cash flow is not stated, and the MATSA and Motheo figures exclude exploration and tax. Exploration of A$10.0M is regional spend only (US$7M), excluding Kalkaroo (US$5M), Black Butte (US$2M) and near-mine infill drilling, which sits in capex. Gold of 574 oz is MATSA gold sold in Q4 FY26. Copper of 34,224 t is contained. Revenue is unaudited. There is no Appendix 5B in this PDF, so burn and funding quarters are not given. The US$650M revolver was fully repaid and remains available to March 2029; shown as undrawn A$928.4M at the release rate.

Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway

How the price reacted

From the last close before the market could trade on it ($18.69 on 22 Jul 2026), with day-1 volume 1.8x the 20-day average.

SFR's past price-sensitive news

After 6 earlier announcements, SFR rose on day 1 3 times and fell 3 times - an average move of -0.1%; after quarterlies alone, -0.9%.

• 26 Oct 26+2.3%
• 25 Aug 26+6.0%
• 22 Apr 26-3.6%
• 8 Apr 26-4.0%
• 18 Feb 26+0.1%
• 21 Jan 26-1.3%

DrillScore holds no recorded share price reactions for Sandfire. The stock closed at A$18.69 on 22 July 2026, the last close before release, and was A$19.48 at the review date, up about 4.2%. That move covers about four months of market change rather than the release itself. The data does not show the 23 July move, so no reaction can be attributed to this report. Over the same period the ASX 300 Metals and Mining index fell 1.4% and COPX fell 13.5%. The last four analysed announcements, all quarterly or production updates, were each rated mixed.

Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results

The historical pattern

What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for SFR and it isn't advice.

A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out

The market it landed in

Copper was about US$6.45/lb at release and US$6.09/lb now. The FY27 deck of US$13,280/t is roughly US$6.02/lb, so spot sat above the guidance deck at both dates, though the margin is now narrow. Silver is the weak point: at US$49.12/oz now it is about 17% below the US$58.9/oz FY27 deck, having been close to the deck at release. Gold is a small part of the business (574oz sold at MATSA in Q4), so the gold fall matters little here. Implied C1 costs of US$0.47-0.70/lb leave a wide margin at spot copper, although C1 excludes capex, tax and depreciation. The Australian dollar fell from 0.7001 to 0.6774 US cents. That lifts the A$ value of US$ revenue and cash, but MATSA's costs are largely in euros. Sector mood was mixed: since release, COPX fell 13.5% and the ASX 300 Metals and Mining index fell 1.4%, while the ASX gold index rose 16.9%. The US 10-year yield rose 0.50 points to 5.154% and the US dollar index rose 2.2%. These are market observations, not a price forecast.

Against SFR's own history

DrillScore's database holds no earlier copper intercepts for SFR, so there is no drilling trend to compare. Output is higher than the March quarter (CuEq 34.5kt, copper 22,868t, gold sold 725oz, all of which match this report's comparatives). Net debt of US$123M at June 2025 has become net cash of US$353M. The database shows cash of A$264.1M and debt of A$157.9M for March 2026. This report gives US$189M and US$113M for the same date, which converts to those figures at about 0.716 rather than 0.7001. The A$ comparison therefore mixes exchange-rate bases and is approximate. The database also holds two different entries for the quarter to 31 December 2025 (cash A$194M and A$204.2M), which should be checked. The last four analysed announcements were all scored mixed (DrillScore 50).

Questions worth asking

• How much of Motheo's Q4 unit cost rise to US$54/t came from A4 ramp-up, price-linked royalties and freight, and how much will reverse as diesel normalises?
• What were group operating cash flow and capex for the quarter on a reconciled basis? The report gives only MATSA and Motheo operating cash flow, before exploration and tax.
• Did the August resource and reserve update and the A1 maiden reserve confirm replacement of depletion at MATSA and Motheo, and by how much?
• What is the decision on Black Butte, and what capital would the Lowry development need once permitting is complete?