Quarterly - ASX:SFR
Sandfire Dec-25 quarter: H1 copper equivalent output 46% of FY26 guidance mid-point; guidance kept
Sandfire's December quarter report shows H1 FY26 copper equivalent (CuEq) output of 72.1kt, 46% of the FY26 guidance mid-point, with Motheo down 12% after an unplanned mill grate failure and lower mobile fleet availability. The company kept all FY26 guidance but now expects output weighted toward H2 (H1:H2 of 46:54). Net cash was US$13M at 31 December 2025 after an US$88M revolver repayment, but the Kalkaroo deal adds A$31.5M cash on completion plus A$15M and A$30M of exploration commitments. The report released no drilling results.
(price sensitive) - Sandfire Resources announced: "December 2025 Quarterly Report" (17 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- H1 FY26 Group CuEq production was 72.1kt, down 5% on the prior corresponding period (75.6kt) and 46% of the 149-165kt guidance range.
- MATSA produced 46.4kt CuEq in H1 (48% of its 91-101kt range) and Motheo produced 25.7kt (42% of its 58-64kt range), down 12% year on year.
- December quarter contained copper was 24,074t (MATSA 13,669t, Motheo 10,405t), down 2% on the September quarter, while contained CuEq rose 3% to 36.6kt.
- Net cash was US$13M (about A$19.4M) at 31 December 2025, against net debt of US$62M at 30 September 2025, after US$88M of revolver repayments in the quarter.
- H1 underlying unit costs were US$87/t at MATSA (FY26 guidance US$86/t) and US$43/t at Motheo (guidance US$44/t), with Motheo costs expected to rise in H2 as higher grade A4 ore adds haulage costs.
- Under the binding Kalkaroo term sheet, Sandfire would earn 80% for A$105M upfront (A$31.5M cash plus 4,640,833 Sandfire shares), subject to a Havilah shareholder vote on 6 February 2026.
- No drill results were reported. The Johnny Lee PFS and Lowry resource from December 2025 are restated, and Sandfire is reviewing whether Black Butte fits its portfolio.
Disclosure checks - the ASX's own focus areas
- Drill-hole table (collars, dip, azimuth, depth, every intercept)n/a
- JORC Table 1, Section 1 - sampling techniques and datan/a
- JORC Table 1, Section 2 - reporting of exploration resultsn/a
- Competent person statementfail
- Metal equivalents with NO recovery figurefail
The ASX's position: equivalents aren't appropriate without metallurgical recovery information, and with none given it assumes 100% recovery.
- Balanced reporting - low and high grades both shownn/a
No drill results or drill-hole tables are released, so the balance test does not apply. Production is reported in full, including the H1 shortfall against guidance and the Motheo variance.
- No visual estimates - assays onlypass
Red flags and notes
CuEq production and guidance use contained metal, June 2025 forward prices (Cu US$9,871/t, Zn US$2,795/t, Pb US$2,067/t, Ag US$36.9/oz) and no metal recoveries, and the report does not state that every metal can be recovered and sold. The ASX would treat the equivalent as assuming 100% recovery.
The report says the Johnny Lee PFS confirmed the economic case and gives copper profiles of about 35ktpa and 29ktpa, but gives no NPV, IRR, capex, opex, price deck or metallurgical recovery. It also says Lowry is outside the PFS, so any mine life extension from Lowry is not part of the stated profile.
The Johnny Lee resource (22.3Mt at 2.4% Cu), reserve (9.5Mt at 2.9% Cu) and Lowry resource (9.3Mt at 2.3% Cu) are restated by reference to a 16 December 2025 release. This PDF names no Competent Person, and the resource classification and cut-off are not repeated here.
The Kalkaroo deal is a binding term sheet still subject to definitive agreements, a Havilah shareholder vote on 6 February 2026 and conditions precedent. The A$105M upfront consideration includes 4,640,833 Sandfire shares, so the scrip value and dilution will move with the share price at completion.
Why these matter: JORC Table 1 - metal equivalents - balanced reporting - visual estimates
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2025-12-31
- Cash
- $204m
- Debt
- $185m
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $7.5m
- Gold produced
- 326 oz
- Copper produced
- 24,074 t
- Revenue
- $513m
- Guidance
- FY26 guidance retained for all core metrics: group CuEq 149-165kt (MATSA 91-101kt, Motheo 58-64kt), copper 102-114kt, MATSA underlying cost US$86/t and Motheo US$44/t, total capex US$230M. Not raised or cut, but H1 delivered 46% of the CuEq mid-point, so H2 must carry 54% (H1:H2 weighting moved from 48:52). Motheo CuEq is expected to reach its 61kt mid-point.
Sandfire reports in US$ unless it states otherwise (note f). A$ figures are US$ divided by 0.671, the AUD/USD rate at 20 January 2026 from the market context, as the report gives no rate. Cash US$137M = A$204.2M; net cash US$13M = A$19.4M; revolver debt US$124M = A$184.8M; sales revenue US$344M = A$512.7M (unaudited). Investing of -A$98.4M is the waterfall's exploration, sustaining and growth capex of US$66M on a cash basis, not a reported investing total. Exploration of A$7.5M is US$5.0M of regional spend (Iberian 2.3 plus Kalahari 2.7); near-mine drilling of about US$4.6M is in sustaining capex. The report has no Appendix 5B, so burn, funding quarters and Group operating cash flow are not stated. The waterfall shows quarterly cash flow before debt service of US$79M after MATSA (US$130M) and Motheo (US$53M) operating cash flows, which exclude exploration and tax. Gold of 326 oz is gold sold by MATSA in Q2, not produced. Copper of 24,074t is contained copper produced at both mines. No AISC is reported; the unit costs are underlying operating costs. Kalkaroo commitments are in A$: A$31.5M cash on completion, A$15M for the alliance and A$30M over two years.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
Resource / reserve
- Tonnes
- 22.3 Mt
- Grade
- 2.40 % Cu
- Contained metal
- 520.00 kt
- What changed
- Johnny Lee Mineral Resource of 22.3Mt at 2.4% Cu (520kt contained Cu), with a reserve of 9.5Mt at 2.9% Cu (270kt) and a Lowry resource of 9.3Mt at 2.3% Cu (210kt). These were released by Sandfire America in December 2025 and are restated here, not newly reported. The PFS profile is about 35ktpa contained copper over four years and about 29ktpa over an eight-year life. Resource classification is not stated in this report.
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved +4.2% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +3.0% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($19.37 on 21 Jan 2026), with day-1 volume 1.0x the 20-day average.
SFR's past price-sensitive news
After 6 earlier announcements, SFR rose on day 1 4 times and fell 2 times - an average move of +0.7%; after quarterlies alone, +0.7%.
DrillScore has no past price reactions on record for Sandfire, so this cannot be compared with how the stock has reacted to earlier news. The price was A$19.37 before release and A$19.48 now, with a market capitalisation of about A$9,116M. Over the same period copper miners (COPX) fell 15.8% and the ASX 300 Metals and Mining index fell 2.5%, so sector moves are a larger factor than this quarterly report. These are observations only, not a prediction.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for SFR and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.4% by day 1, +0.6% by day 5 and +0.6% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.4%
- Day 5
- +0.6%
- Day 20
- +0.6%
This is the first of SFR's announcements DrillScore has seen trade.
In the 20 trading days before this release copper moved +7.6% (rising). Too few past copper announcements released into a rising copper price have traded to show a pattern.
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,766 | US$3,886 | -18.5% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$7,103 | A$5,737 | -19.2% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$5.77 | US$6.09 | +5.5% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6710 | 0.6774 | +1.0% |
At release copper was US$5.773/lb, about US$12,700/t, well above the US$9,871/t FY26 price in the guidance basis, so guidance metal values sat below spot at the time. Copper is now US$6.09/lb, 5.5% above its release level but 6.5% below a month ago. Silver, a by-product at MATSA and Motheo, has fallen 47.9% since release to US$49.12/oz, which is still above the US$36.9/oz guidance deck. Lower silver reduces by-product credits and raises net unit costs at the margin. Gold is a minor by-product here (326 oz sold at MATSA), so its 18.5% fall since release matters little. The AUD moved only from US$0.671 to US$0.6774, but the US dollar index is up 4.8% and oil is up 46.8%, and higher fuel costs could pressure open-pit mining costs. Sector mood has been weaker: the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is down 15.8% and the ASX 300 Metals and Mining index is down 2.5% since release.
Against SFR's own history
DrillScore has no earlier records for Sandfire, so this is a baseline. The report shows MATSA CuEq of 22.7kt (Dec-24 quarter), 21.8kt (Sep-25) and 24.5kt (Dec-25), and Motheo of 14.6kt, 13.6kt and 12.1kt. Net debt fell from US$288M at 31 December 2024 to US$62M at 30 September 2025 and to net cash of US$13M at 31 December 2025. Q2 underlying EBITDA was US$167M, and H1 underlying EBITDA is expected at US$304M. The CEO refers to an ASX update 'last week' that flagged the CuEq shortfall, but that update is not in the PDF or DrillScore's database.
Risks & caveats
- H2 must deliver 54% of FY26 CuEq output and Motheo must lift its processing rate and fleet availability after a weak H1.
- Kalkaroo commitments of A$31.5M cash on completion, A$15M for the Curnamona alliance and A$30M over two years, plus a further A$105M at Sandfire's discretion, compare with net cash of US$13M and a US$124M revolver balance.
- Motheo's H2 costs will rise as higher grade A4 ore adds haulage and handling costs.
- Sales lagged production: Motheo sold 9,634t CuEq against 12,093t contained production in the quarter, with only three concentrate shipments in Q2.
- Guidance and CuEq use June 2025 forward prices and contained metal, so they may not reflect current prices or recoveries.
- All quarterly financial and production figures are unaudited and may change on reconciliation.
What's next
- Havilah shareholder vote on the Kalkaroo transaction - 6 February 2026
- Motheo A1 pre-feasibility study completion - Q4 FY26
- Development of an exploration drive at Magdalena to support the Masa 2 West Extension drilling - Q3 FY26
- Approval of Botswana tenement relinquishments to comply with the 10,000km2 cap - H2 FY26
- Drilling to start in the Cercal licence in Portugal - January 2026, as stated
- MATSA new tailings storage facility available for tailings deposition - H1 FY27
Questions worth asking
- What are the Johnny Lee PFS economics (NPV, IRR, capex, opex and price deck), and what classification applies to the Lowry resource?
- What processing rate, fleet availability and A4 ore grade does Motheo need in H2 to reach its 61kt CuEq mid-point, and what has been achieved since December?
- How will the A$31.5M cash, A$15M and A$30M commitments be funded from net cash of US$13M and a US$124M revolver, and what is the total share count after the 4,640,833 Kalkaroo shares?
- Will FY26 guidance be restated at current metal prices, and what recoveries sit behind the CuEq formula for each mine?
What it means
For a holder, this is a mixed operating update. Costs held near guidance, and the balance sheet moved from net debt to net cash. But H1 output was well short of pace, and guidance depends on a much stronger H2, mainly from Motheo. The larger swing factor is the Kalkaroo deal, whose cash and scrip commitments will change the balance sheet and share count if the Havilah vote and definitive agreements proceed. Copper prices were well above the guidance basis at release, which supports the value of tonnes sold but does not change production. This is general information, not personal advice. Anyone considering a position should weigh these points against their own circumstances.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: medium. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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