Sandfire H1 FY26 net profit US$97.1M, up 88%; net cash US$13.2M after Kalkaroo payments

What investors must know

1. Revenue was a record US$672.1M, up 17%, and copper made up 69% of Group revenue.
2. Underlying EBITDA rose 19% to US$304.5M and Underlying Earnings more than doubled to US$107.1M; no dividend was declared.
3. Operating cash flow was US$266.7M and capital expenditure was US$111.8M in the half, leaving net cash of US$13.2M against net debt of US$123.3M at 30 June 2025.
4. Motheo copper equivalent output fell 12% to 25.7kt on a 0.9% copper head grade and a planned SAG mill shutdown, while MATSA held steady at 46.4kt.
5. Group copper equivalent output was 72.1kt in H1 against FY26 guidance of 149-165kt, which was kept; the company says volumes are weighted to H2 (46:54).
6. Kalkaroo costs A$117.6M upfront (A$31.5M cash plus 4,640,833 shares), with a A$105M Stage 2 option and a A$30M regional exploration commitment; Group capex guidance rose US$10M to US$240M.

Money: can they follow it up?

Period ending

2025-12-31

Cash

$194m

Debt

$175m

Operating cash flow (quarter)

$377m

Exploration spend (quarter)

$29.6m

Shares on issue

462.0m

Copper produced

48,005 t

Revenue

$950m

Guidance

Production guidance retained for MATSA (CuEq 91-101kt, mid-point expected) and Motheo (CuEq 58-64kt, mid-point expected). Group CuEq guidance 149-165kt retained. Underlying operating cost guidance retained (MATSA US$86/t, Motheo US$44/t). Group capex raised by US$10M to US$240M and Underlying E and E raised from US$46M to US$51M, both reflecting Kalkaroo and the Curnamona alliance, and Black Butte up US$3M.

Half-year accounts to 31 December 2025, not a quarter, so there is no Appendix 5B and no item 8.3 or 8.7. The company reports in US$, which is converted at A$ = US$ / 0.7073 (the AUD/USD rate of 17 February 2026 from the supplied context; the announcement gives no AUD rate). Cash US$137.2M, debt principal US$124.0M and net cash US$13.2M (about A$18.7M). Undrawn facilities are not stated. Exploration is the cash paid (US$16.6M operating plus US$4.3M investing); the Underlying E and E expense was US$16.6M. copper_t is the payable copper sold (48,005t), not contained production. Gold ounces are not stated (gold is about 1% of revenue). No dividend. The database's December quarter A$ figures (cash 204.2, debt 184.8) imply an AUD/USD rate near 0.67 at the time, so the A$ values here differ for exchange-rate reasons. Cash is still adequate for ongoing operations, but Kalkaroo and Black Butte choices absorb a good part of the balance sheet.

Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway

How the price reacted

From the last close before the market could trade on it ($18.95 on 18 Feb 2026), with day-1 volume 1.0x the 20-day average.

SFR's past price-sensitive news

After 6 earlier announcements, SFR rose on day 1 3 times and fell 3 times - an average move of +0.5%.

• 26 Oct 26+2.3%
• 25 Aug 26+6.0%
• 22 Jul 26+3.6%
• 22 Apr 26-3.6%
• 8 Apr 26-4.0%
• 21 Jan 26-1.3%

No earlier price-sensitive announcements are on record for this stock, so there is no reaction pattern to compare. Since the release, Sandfire shares have moved from A$18.95 (18 February close) to A$19.48, about 2.8% higher, while the ASX 200 rose 0.8% and copper miner funds fell about 18%. That describes the period only and is not a forecast.

Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results

The historical pattern

What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for SFR and it isn't advice.

A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out

The market it landed in

Copper is the main driver: copper was US$5.633/lb at release and is US$6.09/lb now (up 8.1%), and the company's FY26 copper equivalent deck of US$9,871/t (about US$4.48/lb) sits well below current spot. H1 realised copper of US$10,365/t was also above the deck. Gold has fallen 20.8% since release (US$4,905.9 to US$3,886.3), but gold is about 1% of revenue, so it matters little here. The Australian dollar fell from US$0.7073 to US$0.6774, which lifts A$ revenue but does not offset euro cost exposure at MATSA (about 90% of its costs are in local currency). Oil is up 42.1% since release, which raises diesel and power costs. The US 10-year yield rose to 5.154% from 4.052%, which tends to weigh on developers such as Black Butte and Kalkaroo. Miner funds fell sharply since release (GDX -18.6%, GDXJ -24.3%, COPX -18.3%), while the ASX 200 rose 0.8%.

Against SFR's own history

DrillScore's last analysed announcement (22 January 2026 quarterly, rated mixed, 50) reported H1 copper equivalent output at 46% of the FY26 mid-point. This release's 72.1kt is consistent with that, with the guidance range unchanged. The database's December quarter cash (A$204.2M) and debt (A$184.8M) are in A$ and imply a rate near 0.67, so they differ from this release's US$ figures converted at 0.7073 (about A$194M and A$175M). The database copper figure (24,074t) is a single quarter against 48,005t payable copper for the half. No capital raisings are on record. The Kalkaroo consideration includes 4,640,833 shares, about 1% of the 462M shares on issue, but this is consideration, not a raising.

Questions worth asking

• Was the A1 maiden Ore Reserve declared in Q4 FY26, and how did the PFS compare with the expectations set in February?
• What is the outcome of the Black Butte strategic review, and what is the carrying value of the project?
• How much of the H2 FY26 copper equivalent guidance depends on Motheo grade recovery from a 0.9% head grade?
• How much headroom remains after the A$105M Kalkaroo Stage 2 option and the A$30M exploration commitment?
• How much of the H1 earnings uplift came from metal prices and treatment charges, and how much is sustainable?