Sandfire March quarter copper equivalent output 34.5kt, down 6%; FY26 now expected in lower half of range

What investors must know

1. March quarter copper equivalent output was 34.5kt, down 6% on the December quarter's 36.6kt, with MATSA at 21.7kt (down 12%) and Motheo at 12.8kt (up 6%).
2. Nine-month copper equivalent output was 106.5kt, 5% below the 111.7kt produced in the same period of FY25.
3. FY26 copper equivalent guidance of 149kt to 165kt is unchanged as a range, but the company now expects the lower half, which implies about 42.5kt to 50.5kt in the June quarter (derived from the stated figures).
4. Unaudited net cash was US$76M at 31 March 2026, up from US$13M at 31 December 2025, after A$46.5M paid to Havilah Resources and US$26.1M of Motheo tax instalments.
5. FY26 group capital expenditure guidance was cut by US$15M to US$225M, mainly on Kalkaroo and MATSA tailings facility timing.
6. MATSA's unit operating cost rose temporarily in the March quarter from the H1 level of $87/t, but no March quarter cost figure is given.

Money: can they follow it up?

Period ending

2026-03-31

Copper produced

22,868 t

Guidance

FY26 copper equivalent guidance of 149kt to 165kt is unchanged as a range but is now expected in the lower half (149kt to 157kt). MATSA (91kt to 101kt) is now expected to be comfortably in the lower half. Motheo (58kt to 64kt) is now expected at the bottom of its range. Contained metal ranges are described as unchanged. Unit cost guidance of $86/t (MATSA) and $44/t (Motheo) is described as materially aligned, subject to Middle East conflict effects. Group capex guidance was cut by $15M to $225M. Guidance was revised, not cut in range, and it was not yet met at the date of the update.

Currency: note (d) says that unless otherwise stated all currency figures are US$. Net cash of US$76M is about A$107.4M at the 0.7077 AUD/USD rate on the release day (8 April 2026, from the market context). Cash, debt, operating cash flow and the Appendix 5B items are not in this update, so those fields are blank. Copper of 22,868t is the March quarter Total Copper figure. The announcement does not say whether it is produced or sold. The A$46.5M Havilah payments are cash outflows, not a capital raising. Net cash is stated net of debt and excludes capitalised transaction costs, leases and accrued interest. Net cash rose by US$63M in the quarter, which reflects operating cash flow, but also the Havilah and tax payments. No raising is recorded or flagged in this update. The announcement does not say whether a raise is needed.

Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway

How the price reacted

From the last close before the market could trade on it ($18.14 on 8 Apr 2026), with day-1 volume 0.9x the 20-day average.

SFR's past price-sensitive news

After 6 earlier announcements, SFR rose on day 1 4 times and fell 2 times - an average move of +1.2%.

• 26 Oct 26+2.3%
• 25 Aug 26+6.0%
• 22 Jul 26+3.6%
• 22 Apr 26-3.6%
• 18 Feb 26+0.1%
• 21 Jan 26-1.3%

DrillScore holds no price reactions to earlier price-sensitive Sandfire news. Since the release, the database shows the close moved from A$18.14 (8 April 2026) to A$19.48, about +7.4%. Over the same period the ASX 300 Metals and Mining index fell 5.1%, COPX fell 15.6% and GDX fell 16.8%. These are relative movements over about seven months, not a reaction on the day of the news. The 52-week range was supplied as A$14.41 to 25, which looks truncated. These figures describe past moves and do not indicate future price direction.

Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results

The historical pattern

What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for SFR and it isn't advice.

A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out

The market it landed in

Sandfire is a copper producer, so gold matters only through sector mood. Copper was US$5.76/lb on 8 April and US$6.09/lb now. The FY26 copper equivalent deck was US$9,871/t copper (about US$4.48/lb), which sits well below spot. The deck sets the weights for zinc, lead and silver in copper equivalent, not the tonnes produced. Silver was US$75.22/oz at release, about double the US$36.9/oz deck, so at spot silver would carry more weight in copper equivalent. It is now US$49.12/oz. The AUD fell from 0.7077 to 0.6774 US$, which raises the A$ value of US$ revenue and cash. Sector mood weakened after the release. Gold fell from US$4,777 to US$3,886/oz, GDX fell 16.8%, GDXJ fell 22.2% and COPX fell 15.6%. The ASX 300 Metals and Mining index fell 5.1%, while the ASX 200 rose 1.5%. The update gives no revenue or margin figures, so this context does not show a margin result.

Against SFR's own history

DrillScore holds no earlier Sandfire copper intercepts and no capital raisings. The January 2026 quarterly said H1 copper equivalent output was 46% of the guidance mid-point. This update implies a similar pace, since nine-month output of 106.5kt is about 46% of the 157kt mid-point. The February 2026 H1 result gave net cash of US$13.2M, which matches the US$13M December net cash in this update. The database holds two December 2025 cash entries, cash 194 and 204.2, with different debt and copper figures (48,005t and 24,074t). These should be checked against the source, since they do not match this update's net cash directly. Net cash rising from US$13M to US$76M is an improvement, but this update shows the cash moved by payments as well as operating cash flow.

Questions worth asking

• What was MATSA's underlying operating unit cost in the March quarter, and what drove the temporary rise from $87/t?
• What is the June quarter copper equivalent production implied by the lower-half guidance, and did Motheo reach the bottom of its range?
• What were cash, debt, operating cash flow and the Appendix 5B funding figures for the March quarter?
• How much of the Havilah payments is still outstanding, and how is the Kalkaroo program being funded?
• Are the copper equivalent figures on contained or payable metal, and what recoveries sit behind them?