Resource update - ASX:GGP
Telfer gold resource up 4.8Moz to 8.0Moz at December 2025; M&I up 163% to 3.8Moz
Greatland's December 2025 Mineral Resource update lifts the Telfer gold resource by 4.8Moz to 8.0Moz, with Measured and Indicated ounces up 163% to 3.8Moz. Including the unchanged Havieron resource, the group total is 14.9Moz gold and 645kt copper. The estimate uses A$4,200/oz gold, well below the spot price quoted at release, and 4.2Moz of Telfer's total is Inferred.
(price sensitive) - Greatland Resources announced: "December 2025 Group Mineral Resource Statement" (30 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Telfer resource grows 4.8Moz (+150%) to 8.0Moz gold and 370kt copper, from 419Mt at 0.59g/t Au and 0.09% Cu.
- Measured and Indicated Telfer resource rises 163% to 170Mt at 0.69g/t Au for 3.8Moz, which the company says is suitable for the upcoming Ore Reserve update.
- 4.2Moz of the 8.0Moz Telfer total is Inferred, so most of the new ounces still need further drilling to reach higher confidence.
- The group total of 550Mt at 0.84g/t Au for 14.9Moz gold includes Havieron, which the announcement says is unchanged from its earlier estimate.
- The maiden West Dome Underground resource is 0.6Moz at 2.30g/t Au, and the Main Dome Underground resource grows 1.5Moz to 2.2Moz.
- The resource uses A$4,200/oz gold and A$6.50/lb copper, against spot prices of about A$6,500/oz and A$8.00/lb at release.
- The company's discovery cost claims of $5/oz (Telfer) and about $9/oz (West Dome Underground) are not explained in the announcement.
Disclosure checks - the ASX's own focus areas
- Drill-hole table (collars, dip, azimuth, depth, every intercept)n/a
- JORC Table 1, Section 1 - sampling techniques and datapass
- JORC Table 1, Section 2 - reporting of exploration resultsn/a
- Competent person statementpass
- Metal equivalents with NO recovery figurefail
The ASX's position: equivalents aren't appropriate without metallurgical recovery information, and with none given it assumes 100% recovery.
- Balanced reporting - low and high grades both shownn/a
This is a resource statement, not an exploration results release, so the drill-hole balance test does not directly apply. Table 2 usefully splits West Dome Open Pit into high-grade (258Mt at 0.53g/t Au) and low-grade (80Mt at 0.22g/t Au) components. The Inferred share of the Telfer total is large and is stated clearly.
- No visual estimates - assays onlypass
Red flags and notes
The equivalent formula is shown, but the metallurgical recovery for each metal in it is not stated with the test work behind it. The ASX expects recoveries to be disclosed for metal equivalents; without them it assumes 100%.
The headline says the resource supports a long-life operation and the Managing Director describes a multi-decade, world class mining hub. No Ore Reserve is stated, and the company says Measured and Indicated material still has to be evaluated in the Ore Reserve update.
The VSC adds 1.3Moz at a A$70/t NSR cut-off, the lowest of the underground domains, using sub-level caving with no mining dilution. The announcement does not show how the sub-level cave economics were tested, and the cave has not been mined materially since 2023.
The resource is stated as at 31 December 2025 with drilling to that date, but the Appendix 1 text says the West Dome Open Pit model was estimated in March 2026 with added RC and diamond results. The announcement should confirm which drilling is in the model.
The waterfall attributes 3.4Moz to growth in existing areas. The text says the West Dome increase came from drilling together with updated cost and revenue factors and the inclusion of low-grade ex-pit material, but the announcement does not quantify each effect.
Why these matter: JORC Table 1 - metal equivalents - balanced reporting - visual estimates
Resource / reserve
- Tonnes
- 550.0 Mt
- Grade
- 0.84 g/t
- Contained metal
- 14.90 Moz
- What changed
- Group (Telfer and Havieron) at 31 December 2025. Telfer alone: 419Mt at 0.59g/t Au for 8.0Moz, up 4.8Moz (+150%) from 3.2Moz at December 2024. Telfer Measured and Indicated 170Mt at 0.69g/t Au for 3.8Moz, up 163%. Growth includes 1.3Moz from the Vertical Stockwork Corridor and 0.6Moz from West Dome Underground. Havieron is unchanged at 7.0Moz.
How the price reacted
News signal positive, and on day 1 the stock moved +8.9% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +32.9% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($9.76 on 27 Mar 2026), with day-1 volume 0.9x the 20-day average.
GGP's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, GGP rose on day 1 3 times and fell 6 times - an average move of +1.0%.
No past share price reactions are on record for this company, so no pattern can be drawn. The share price closed at A$9.76 before the release and is now A$10.36, about 6% higher. Over the same period the ASX gold index rose about 15% and the junior gold ETF fell about 10%, so the stock move cannot be separated from sector and rate moves. This describes the record only and does not predict the price.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for GGP and it isn't advice.
After 41 other announcements read as 'positive', stocks moved +1.6% by day 1, +1.7% by day 5 and +0.2% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.6%
- Day 5
- +1.7%
- Day 20
- +0.2%
This is the first of GGP's announcements DrillScore has seen trade.
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved -28.0% (falling). After 34 past gold announcements released into a falling gold index, stocks moved +1.6% by day 1, +3.2% by day 5 and +9.9% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.6%
- Day 5
- +3.2%
- Day 20
- +9.9%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,493 | US$3,886 | -13.5% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,523 | A$5,737 | -12.1% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$5.47 | US$6.09 | +11.4% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6887 | 0.6774 | -1.6% |
Gold is now US$3,886/oz, down 13.5% since the release, and A$5,737/oz, still well above the A$4,200/oz price deck used for the Telfer cut-offs. Copper is US$6.09/lb, about A$9/lb at the current AUD/USD of 0.6774, against the A$6.50/lb deck. The margin at current prices is wider than the study-price basis, but the spot price has fallen from about A$6,500/oz at release. The US 10-year yield rose 0.71 points to 5.15% and the US dollar index rose 3.3%, both headwinds for gold. The ASX gold index is up 14.9% since release while the US-listed gold and junior gold ETFs are down, so sector mood has been mixed.
Against GGP's own history
DrillScore has no earlier intercepts, cash readings, raisings or price reactions on record for GGP, so comparison with the company's own history rests on the announcement. The announcement compares this estimate with the December 2024 Telfer resource: Telfer rises from 3.2Moz to 8.0Moz after 0.4Moz of mining depletion. West Dome Open Pit grows 2.8Moz to 4.9Moz, and Main Dome Underground grows 1.5Moz to 2.2Moz.
Risks & caveats
- Most of the Telfer growth is Inferred (4.2Moz of 8.0Moz). Inferred ounces carry lower geological confidence and are not yet reserves.
- The Telfer estimate is tied to a A$4,200/oz gold price deck and to cost and revenue assumptions that the company says would affect the estimate if they changed materially.
- The Vertical Stockwork Corridor adds 1.3Moz. It is a sub-level cave target with a A$70/t NSR cut-off, no mining dilution applied, and no material mining of the cave since 2023.
- Growth is not split between drilling and the updated cost, revenue and inclusion of previously excluded low-grade ex-pit material, so the drilling contribution cannot be isolated from the announcement.
- The Havieron 7.0Moz is carried from an earlier estimate that used a A$2,360/oz gold cut-off price.
What's next
- Telfer Ore Reserve Estimate update using the Measured and Indicated resource - Targeted for June 2026 quarter, as stated in March 2026
- Assays from the second half FY26 drilling of more than 100,000m, which the company says was after the data cut-off - H2 FY26, as stated
- Ongoing West Dome Underground drilling of more than 20,000m, targeting infill and extensions - 2026, as stated
- Substantial drilling program for future resource updates - FY27, as stated
- Assessment of restarting the Main Dome Underground sub-level cave - not stated
Questions worth asking
- Has the Telfer Ore Reserve update been released, and does it convert the Measured and Indicated ounces at the same cost and price assumptions?
- How much of the 4.8Moz Telfer growth came from new drilling, and how much from updated cost, revenue and low-grade ex-pit inclusion?
- What mining dilution, extraction and sub-level cave economics support the 1.3Moz Vertical Stockwork Corridor at a A$70/t NSR cut-off?
- Why does the West Dome model date to March 2026 when the stated data cut-off is 31 December 2025, and what drilling was added after the cut-off?
- What is the basis of the $5/oz and $9/oz discovery cost figures, and what cost, ounces and period do they cover?
What it means
This is a larger and more confident Telfer resource, with the Measured and Indicated category up 163% and a planned Ore Reserve update that would test whether these ounces can be mined economically. Investors should note that more than half of the Telfer total is still Inferred, that the estimate is based on a gold price well below the spot price quoted at release, and that the Vertical Stockwork Corridor depends on a sub-level cave method that has not been tested in this announcement. Since release the spot gold price has fallen, and the next checks are whether the Ore Reserve update has been released and how it treats these assumptions. This is general information only and not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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