Quarterly - ASX:GGP
Greatland September quarter: 70,131oz gold at A$2,925/oz AISC; cash A$1,314m; Havieron construction starts
Greatland produced 70,131oz of gold and 2,927t of copper in the September 2026 quarter at an AISC of A$2,925/oz, down from 79,100oz and A$2,312/oz in the June quarter, after a 15-day plant shutdown. Operating cash flow of A$289m, after A$100m of tax instalments, lifted closing cash to A$1,314m with no drawn debt. FY27 guidance is reaffirmed and Havieron construction has started, but the release contains no new drill results or resource estimate.
(price sensitive) - Greatland Resources announced: "September 2026 Quarterly Activities Report" (11 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Gold output of 70,131oz was down from 79,100oz in the June quarter, and AISC rose to A$2,925/oz from A$2,312/oz.
- Sales of 71,901oz gold were made at a weighted average realised price of A$5,980/oz, generating net revenue of A$485m.
- Operating cash flow of A$289m after A$100m of tax instalments lifted closing cash to A$1,314m, with no drawn debt and A$475m of undrawn revolving facilities.
- Growth spending was A$96.7m as stated: Havieron A$45.2m, Telfer A$37.2m, and exploration and resource development A$13.3m capitalised.
- FY27 guidance of 260,000-300,000oz gold at AISC of A$2,900-3,330/oz is reaffirmed, with production expected to be modestly second-half weighted.
- No drill results, Mineral Resource or Ore Reserve estimate are reported in this release.
- Havieron project commenced in September 2026 after all secondary construction approvals were received.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-09-30
- Cash
- $1.3bn
- Debt
- $0
- Undrawn facilities
- $475m
- Operating cash flow (quarter)
- $289m
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $3.7m
- Shares on issue
- 674.7m
- Options, rights & convertibles
- 24.4m
- Gold produced
- 70,131 oz
- Copper produced
- 2,927 t
- AISC
- A$2,925/oz (margin about A$2,784/oz at the day's gold price)
- Revenue
- $485m
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance of 260,000-300,000oz gold at AISC of A$2,900-3,330/oz is reaffirmed as on track. Production is modestly second-half weighted. Quarter AISC of A$2,925/oz sits inside the range.
Figures are from the report, which has no Appendix 5B attached. Cash of 1,313.9 is from the cash waterfall (the text rounds to 1,314). Gold oz is production; sales were 71,901oz. Exploration of 3.7 is the stated 2.7 expensed plus 1.0 capitalised. Total outgoings, investing cash flow and funding quarters are not stated. The cash waterfall shows Telfer growth 58.1, Havieron 44.6 and resource and exploration 16.6 on a cash basis, against accrued figures of 37.2, 45.2 and 14.3 in the text. Operating cash flow is A$289m after A$100m of tax instalments. The company is self-funding at this level of spend, with about A$1.8bn of available liquidity including undrawn facilities. No raising is announced.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved +4.1% against the gold index (XGD).
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($8.68 on 23 Oct 2026), with day-1 volume 1.4x the 20-day average.
GGP's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, GGP rose on day 1 3 times and fell 6 times - an average move of +1.5%; after quarterlies alone, -0.7%.
DrillScore has no recorded price reactions to earlier price-sensitive news for this stock, so there is no local precedent to compare. The share price was A$8.68 before the release and is A$10.36 now. The sector moved strongly over the same period (XGD up 11.3% since the release), so the price change cannot be attributed to this announcement alone. The price on the day of the release is not in the supplied data.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for GGP and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.4% by day 1, +0.6% by day 5 and +0.7% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.4%
- Day 5
- +0.6%
- Day 20
- +0.7%
After its earlier announcements, GGP moved +1.0% by day 1, +0.5% by day 5 and 0.0% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.0%
- Day 5
- +0.5%
- Day 20
- 0.0%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved -12.8% (falling). After 34 past gold announcements released into a falling gold index, stocks moved +1.7% by day 1, +3.9% by day 5 and +11.4% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.7%
- Day 5
- +3.9%
- Day 20
- +11.4%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,008 | US$3,886 | -3.0% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$5,709 | A$5,737 | +0.5% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.48 | US$6.09 | -6.0% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7020 | 0.6774 | -3.5% |
At the release, gold was US$4,008/oz and A$5,709/oz. It is now US$3,886/oz and A$5,737/oz. The quarter's realised price of A$5,980/oz is above current A$ spot, and spot is well above the A$2,925/oz quarter AISC, so margins remain wide at these prices. The A$ gold price is roughly flat because the Australian dollar fell about 3.5% against the US dollar over the period. Copper has eased to US$6.09/lb from US$6.476/lb but is still up about 20% on a year ago. The US dollar index and the 10-year yield have risen, which tends to weigh on gold. Gold put strikes of A$4,200-5,200/oz remain below current spot. The ASX Gold index (XGD) is up 11.3% since the release, while GDX is up 1.8%, GDXJ is down 0.3% and COPX is down 5.3%, so sector mood has been mixed.
Against GGP's own history
No earlier drill intercepts are on record. Versus the last four reports: gold output of 70,131oz is down from 79,100oz in June and 82,723oz in March, and below 80,890oz a year ago; AISC of A$2,925/oz is above A$2,312/oz (June), A$2,056/oz (March) and A$2,155/oz (September 2025). Cash of A$1,314m is up from A$1,289m at 30 June, with undrawn facilities unchanged at A$475m and no debt. Shares on issue of 674.67m are up from 672.91m at 31 March, with no capital raisings on record. The 29 June 2026 reserve update (5.0Moz gold) and the May 2026 Havieron environmental approval are now followed by the start of construction. DrillScore's database holds two conflicting June quarter operating cash flow figures (1,238 and 302); this analysis uses the report's A$289m for the September quarter.
Risks & caveats
- AISC of A$2,925/oz is inside the FY27 guided range but well above the A$2,312/oz of the June quarter, and the company gives only a brief explanation.
- A catch-up FY26 tax payment of about A$155m is expected in December 2026, plus monthly PAYG instalments at about 12% of instalment income for the rest of FY27.
- Gold put options cover 149,998oz at a weighted strike of A$4,850/oz, so price protection applies only below those levels and the company keeps full upside.
- Depreciation and amortisation is expected to rise to A$280-320m in FY27, weighted to the second half.
- Production is guided to be second-half weighted, so the first-quarter run rate is not a full-year guide on its own.
- The release says copper recoveries were record, but Table 1 shows 82.6% in the March 2026 quarter against 82.5% this quarter.
What's next
- Telfer FY26 catch-up tax payment of about A$155m - December 2026
- Havieron blind bore contractor site establishment - October 2026 (targeted)
- Gold put option quarter ends at 31-Dec-2026, 31-Mar-2027, 30-Jun-2027 and 30-Sep-2027 - As stated in Table 3
- Additional surface diamond rig at Pinnacles Prospect testing the West Dome extension - not stated
- FY27 full year production against guidance of 260,000-300,000oz gold - FY27 full year
Questions worth asking
- How much of the rise in AISC from A$2,312/oz to A$2,925/oz is timing (the shutdown, stockpiles or sustaining capex) and how much is structural?
- What share of FY27 guidance of 260,000-300,000oz falls in the second half, and what is the quarterly run rate needed to meet the low end?
- What is the Havieron construction budget and schedule, and how does the company plan to report any cost changes?
- Why do the cash waterfall figures for Telfer growth (A$58.1m) and Havieron (A$44.6m) differ from the accrued figures in the text (A$37.2m and A$45.2m)?
- What drilling results and timing are expected from the Pinnacles program and any future resource or reserve update?
What it means
This quarter shows solid tonnage, a strong balance sheet and the start of Havieron construction, but unit costs rose sharply on June and the production run rate is lower. For someone following Greatland, the key questions are whether the cost increase is timing, how much of FY27 output falls in the second half, and how Havieron's build cost compares with its plan. The release contains no new exploration results, so the investment case rests on operations, costs and project delivery. This is general information only and not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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