Results - ASX:GGP
Greatland FY26 profit A$862m, cash A$1,289m; FY27 gold guided to 260-300koz at higher AISC
Greatland's first full year of Telfer ownership produced 328,987oz of gold, with net profit of A$862m, closing cash of A$1,289m and no drawn debt. FY27 guidance is for lower gold output (260-300koz) and a higher unit cost (AISC A$2,900-3,330/oz). Havieron's FID and the Telfer and O'Callaghans resource and reserve figures are restated from earlier releases, and no new drill results are reported.
(price sensitive) - Greatland Resources announced: "Successful First Full Financial Year of Telfer Ownership" (7 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- FY26 net profit after tax was A$862m on revenue of A$2,259m, with EBITDA of A$1,332m and free cash flow of A$737m.
- Greatland produced 328,987oz of gold and 14,594t of copper at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,179/oz, up from A$1,849/oz in FY25 (which covers only about seven months of ownership).
- Closing cash was A$1,289m and undrawn corporate facilities were A$475m, giving total liquidity of A$1,764m. The company reports no debt drawn.
- FY27 guidance is 260-300koz of gold at an AISC of A$2,900-3,330/oz, which means lower output and a higher cost range than FY26, with production modestly second half weighted.
- The Havieron feasibility study base case gives a post-tax NPV5% of A$2.9bn at A$4,500/oz long-term gold, rising to A$5.4bn in the A$6,250/oz spot case. The FID was approved in June 2026.
- The Telfer resource (7.9Moz gold), Group reserves (5.0Moz gold) and O'Callaghans resource are restated from earlier announcements, not new estimates.
- No new drill results are reported. The Pinnacles intercepts quoted are a recap of the 11 May 2026 exploration update.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Cash
- $1.3bn
- Debt
- $0
- Undrawn facilities
- $475m
- Operating cash flow (quarter)
- $1.2bn
- Gold produced
- 328,987 oz
- Copper produced
- 14,594 t
- AISC
- A$2,179/oz (margin about A$4,315/oz at the day's gold price)
- Revenue
- $2.3bn
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance, as previously announced in the 29 July 2026 June quarter report: gold 260-300koz and AISC A$2,900-3,330/oz produced, modestly second half weighted because of open pit scheduling and a completed 15-day process plant shut in the first quarter. Growth capital: Telfer A$315-335m, Havieron A$365-435m, resource development and exploration A$70-80m. FY26 guidance is not restated in this release, so whether it was met is not stated here.
Full-year FY26 figures from the results release, not a quarterly. There is no Appendix 5B in this release, so burn, exploration spend, funding quarters and shares on issue are not stated here. Closing cash A$1,289m, cash build A$714m, operating cash flow A$1,238m and free cash flow A$737m are FY26 figures. Gold produced (328,987oz) is used; gold sold was 326,859oz. Debt is nil. Havieron corporate debt facilities of A$500m were executed, but the release gives undrawn corporate facilities of A$475m without reconciling the two. DrillScore's database holds June quarter figures (cash A$1,289m, operating cash flow A$302m, shares 674.67m) that are not in this release. All amounts are in A$ as stated, with no conversion.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
Resource / reserve
- Tonnes
- 417.0 Mt
- Grade
- 0.59 g/t
- Contained metal
- 7.90 Moz
- What changed
- Telfer Mineral Resource of 417Mt at 0.59g/t Au and 0.09% Cu for 7.9Moz Au and 369kt Cu. The release says this is up 4.8Moz (+150%) from the prior estimate. Table 5 shows 2.7Mt Measured and 182Mt Indicated, and the Measured plus Indicated share is not stated. The Telfer Ore Reserve is 118.7Mt at 0.46g/t Au for 1.8Moz Au and 68kt Cu, and Group Ore Reserves are 5.0Moz Au. These figures are restated from earlier announcements. The O'Callaghans resource (70Mt, 246kt WO3) is also restated.
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved -1.9% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: -10.6% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($13.53 on 26 Aug 2026), with day-1 volume 1.1x the 20-day average.
GGP's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, GGP rose on day 1 4 times and fell 5 times - an average move of +2.6%.
DrillScore holds no recorded share price reactions to Greatland's earlier price-sensitive news, so there is no reaction pattern to compare. The share price was A$13.53 at the close before this release and is A$10.36 now, within a 52-week range of A$7.28-15.425. Sector indices fell further over the same period, with XGD down 11.9% and GDX down 20.3%. Greatland's move is larger than the XGD move. The release came out before these falls, so the announcement cannot be isolated as the cause. Earlier DrillScore-rated updates were mostly positive, apart from the mixed June quarter note.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for GGP and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.6% by day 1, +1.1% by day 5 and +1.0% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.6%
- Day 5
- +1.1%
- Day 20
- +1.0%
After its earlier announcements, GGP moved +1.4% by day 1, +1.9% by day 5 and +1.3% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.4%
- Day 5
- +1.9%
- Day 20
- +1.3%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved +32.5% (rising). After 38 past gold announcements released into a rising gold index, stocks moved +2.0% by day 1, +3.0% by day 5 and -4.1% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +2.0%
- Day 5
- +3.0%
- Day 20
- -4.1%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,653 | US$3,886 | -16.5% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,494 | A$5,737 | -11.7% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.59 | US$6.09 | -7.7% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7165 | 0.6774 | -5.5% |
At the release (26 Aug close) gold was US$4,653.3/oz (A$6,494.49). It is now US$3,886.3/oz (A$5,737.08). The A$ gold price fell less than the US$ price because the AUD also fell, from 0.7165 to 0.6774. Current A$ gold is below the FY26 average realised price of A$6,223/oz and the A$6,250/oz spot case used in the Havieron study. It is still well above the A$4,500/oz long-term base case and the FY27 AISC range of A$2,900-3,330/oz. The study's spot case also assumed AUD:USD of 0.65, so the stronger current AUD reduces A$ revenue per US$ gold price. Copper is now US$6.09/lb against the US$5/lb base case assumption. Sector mood has weakened since release: XGD fell 11.9%, GDX 20.3%, GDXJ 25.5%, COPX 27.5% and silver 27.8%. Over the same period the US dollar index rose to 103.41 and the US 10-year yield rose to 5.154%. These are the conditions at the time of writing, not a forecast.
Against GGP's own history
DrillScore's database has no drilling intercepts or capital raisings on record for Greatland, so there is no drilling history to compare. Closing cash of A$1,289m matches the June quarter record. The March quarter record shows cash of A$1,208m. AISC was A$2,056/oz in the March quarter, A$2,312/oz in the June quarter and A$2,179/oz for the full year. FY27 guidance of A$2,900-3,330/oz is above all three. The June quarter gold figure in the database is 79,100oz, against 82,723oz for the March quarter. The 6 July note recorded FY26 gold as 328,986oz, while this release states 328,987oz, a one-ounce difference to reconcile. The 30 March 2026 record shows Telfer at 8.0Moz with 3.8Moz Indicated, against 7.9Moz and 3.9Moz in this release.
Risks & caveats
- FY27 production guidance of 260-300koz is below FY26's 328,987oz, and the AISC range of A$2,900-3,330/oz is well above FY26's A$2,179/oz.
- The Havieron base case assumes A$4,500/oz long-term gold. The A$6,250/oz spot case is a late-2025 price, and the production target includes Inferred resources (about 13%) and an Exploration Target (about 5%).
- The Havieron cost estimate uses a June 2025 base date. Pre-production capital of A$1,065m includes an 11% contingency and a 3.5% growth allowance.
- Milled grade fell 11% to 0.58g/t gold in FY26, so FY27 output depends on the open pit schedule and on mining and processing performance.
- Havieron first gold is expected in FY29, so the project will need funding through construction before it adds production.
What's next
- Havieron construction and pre-production capital spend commence - FY27
- Telfer West Dome Underground study completion - targeted in FY27
- Completion of study on sub-level cave mining of the Vertical Stockwork Corridor - not stated
- FY27 gold production and AISC against guidance, modestly second half weighted - FY27
- Telfer growth and conversion drilling of about 215km, plus A$18m of regional exploration largely in the Paterson region - FY27
- First gold from Havieron - expected during FY29
Questions worth asking
- What drives the step up in FY27 AISC guidance to A$2,900-3,330/oz from A$2,179/oz in FY26, and how much of it is one-off?
- Will the Havieron feasibility study cost base, dated June 2025, be updated before construction and capital commitments are made?
- Which effective date applies to the Telfer resource and reserve figures, and how do the 7.9Moz and 3.9Moz Indicated figures reconcile with the March update?
- How much of the A$500m Havieron debt facilities will be drawn, and how does that relate to the A$475m of undrawn corporate facilities?
- What grade and tonnage will the open pit and West Dome Underground deliver in FY27, given milled grade fell 11% in FY26?
What it means
For someone following Greatland, this release shows a strong cash position and much higher profit than FY25, although FY25 was a partial year of ownership. The forward picture is a bigger, costlier year. FY27 guidance points to lower gold output and a higher AISC while Havieron moves into construction, with first gold not expected until FY29. The Havieron economics are very sensitive to the gold price, and the spot case uses a price well above the base case. The release contains no new drilling, and most of its operational and reserve news was already public, so its main new content is the FY26 accounts and the FY27 framework. The share price has moved sharply since the release alongside the wider sector, which is a separate question from the content of this announcement. This is general information only and not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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