Reserve update - ASX:GGP
Greatland reserves rise to 5.0Moz gold; Telfer reserve up 150% to 1.8Moz
Greatland's March 2026 Group Ore Reserve rises to 157.2Mt at 0.99g/t Au and 0.12% Cu, or 5.0Moz gold and 196kt copper, with Telfer at 1.8Moz after depletion. The release contains no new drill results. The Telfer increase rests on roughly the first half of the FY26 drill program and on a medium-term gold price of A$4,000/oz, well below the ~A$5,930/oz spot the company quotes. The signal is about the size of the mine plan, not a fresh grade discovery.
(price sensitive) - Greatland Resources announced: "March 2026 Group Ore Reserve Statement" (35 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Group Ore Reserve of 157.2Mt at 0.99g/t Au and 0.12% Cu for 5.0Moz gold and 196kt copper, as at 31 March 2026.
- Telfer Ore Reserve of 118.7Mt at 0.46g/t Au and 0.06% Cu for 1.8Moz gold and 68kt copper, up 1.1Moz after depletion.
- West Dome Open Pit reserve of 90.6Mt at 0.46g/t Au for 1.4Moz, with a higher-grade component of 70.8Mt at 0.53g/t Au for 1.2Moz.
- Main Dome Underground reserve of 3.6Mt at 1.33g/t Au for 0.2Moz, previously nil, and stockpiles of 22.5Mt at 0.36g/t Au for 0.3Moz.
- Havieron reserve is unchanged at 38.5Mt at 2.63g/t Au and 0.33% Cu for 3.3Moz, using a long-term gold price of A$2,500/oz.
- Telfer residual resources outside the reserve include West Dome Open Pit at 244Mt at 0.45g/t Au for 3.5Moz, and underground resources (MDU, WDU and VSC) at 53.9Mt at 1.53g/t Au for 2.6Moz; WDU and VSC are still under study.
Disclosure checks - the ASX's own focus areas
- Drill-hole table (collars, dip, azimuth, depth, every intercept)n/a
- JORC Table 1, Section 1 - sampling techniques and datapass
- JORC Table 1, Section 2 - reporting of exploration resultsn/a
- Competent person statementpass
- No metal equivalents - grades as assayedpass
- Balanced reporting - low and high grades both shownpass
The release discloses excluded resources (WDO, underground, WDU and VSC), Inferred material treated as waste, and the price assumptions. The percentage upside figures are highlighted without tonnes or grades.
- No visual estimates - assays onlypass
Red flags and notes
The release states that 42% more gold could be converted from Inferred material in the pit shell and 8% more underground, but gives no tonnes or grades for that material and does not state that this is not an estimate of reserves.
The Telfer reserve uses A$4,000/oz gold and A$6.00/lb copper against spot of ~A$5,930/oz and ~A$8.70/lb, and the Havieron reserve uses a long-term A$2,500/oz price unchanged from December 2025. The assumptions are disclosed, but the gap is wide.
The reserve uses the December 2025 Mineral Resource, but the West Dome Open Pit classification is updated to 31 March 2026, and a new West Dome resource statement is released in the same document.
Section 1 gives a current underground mining rate of ~1.0-1.5Mtpa, while the Table 1 Section 4 text gives 1.5-2.0Mtpa.
Why these matter: JORC Table 1 - metal equivalents - balanced reporting - visual estimates
Money: can they follow it up?
- Undrawn facilities
- $225m
The release gives no cash balance or cash flow. Its only funding item is Facility B, a A$225m undrawn 7-year revolving facility (part of a A$500m corporate debt facility) that reached financial close for working capital and Havieron development. DrillScore's history shows cash of A$1,208.2m, no debt and A$75m undrawn at 31 March 2026. The release does not say whether Facility B is additional to that A$75m.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
Resource / reserve
- Tonnes
- 157.2 Mt
- Grade
- 0.99 g/t Au
- Contained metal
- 5.00 Moz
- What changed
- Group Ore Reserve (Proved plus Probable) is 5.0Moz, which the headline says is up 62%. Telfer is 1.8Moz after depletion and Havieron is 3.3Moz, unchanged. The West Dome Open Pit resource is updated to 336Mt at 0.45g/t Au and 4.9Moz, after about 15Mt of Inferred converted to Indicated with no material change in total tonnes, metal or grade.
How the price reacted
News signal positive, and on day 1 the stock moved -0.6% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: -12.7% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($12.12 on 26 Jun 2026), with day-1 volume 1.0x the 20-day average.
GGP's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, GGP rose on day 1 4 times and fell 5 times - an average move of +2.4%.
DrillScore has no recorded share price reactions for Greatland, so no pattern from earlier news can be drawn. The shares were A$12.12 before release and are A$10.36 now, a fall of about 14.5%, over a period when the ASX gold index rose about 14.9%. Any link to this release cannot be separated from wider moves in gold, copper and the Australian market.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for GGP and it isn't advice.
After 41 other announcements read as 'positive', stocks moved +1.9% by day 1, +2.6% by day 5 and +1.3% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.9%
- Day 5
- +2.6%
- Day 20
- +1.3%
After its earlier announcements, GGP moved +3.7% by day 1, +8.7% by day 5 and +10.4% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +3.7%
- Day 5
- +8.7%
- Day 20
- +10.4%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved +1.1% (steady). After 13 past gold announcements released into a steady gold index, stocks moved +1.2% by day 1, -1.1% by day 5 and +16.6% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.2%
- Day 5
- -1.1%
- Day 20
- +16.6%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,096 | US$3,886 | -5.1% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$5,936 | A$5,737 | -3.3% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.14 | US$6.09 | -0.8% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6901 | 0.6774 | -1.8% |
Gold was US$4,096.3/oz (A$5,935.81/oz) at the 26 June release and is now US$3,886.3/oz (A$5,737.08/oz). The Telfer reserve assumes A$4,000/oz, and the release quotes spot at ~A$5,930/oz on 27 June, so the reserve sits well below current prices, which would raise margins on the same ore if the reserve assumptions held. Copper is US$6.09/lb, against the A$6.00/lb reserve assumption. Since release, the US 10-year yield has risen to 5.154% from 4.372%, the US dollar index is up 2.0%, and the AUD is at US$0.6774. The ASX gold index (XGD) is up 14.9%, GDX is up 6.0% and GDXJ is down 1.3%, while COPX is down 9.1% and silver is down 17.0%.
Against GGP's own history
DrillScore's history shows cash of A$1,208.2m at 31 March 2026, no debt and A$75m undrawn, with 672.91m shares. Telfer gold was 8.0Moz at December 2025 in the 30 March 2026 release. The Table 2 total of 7.9Moz at 31 March 2026 is consistent with that figure after the West Dome update and 93koz of March quarter depletion, which the release states. Table 2 Indicated metal sums to 3.9Moz, against 3.8Moz in the 30 March release, and the announcement does not reconcile the two. The Group Ore Reserve of 3.1Moz at December 2024 is taken from the release's Figure 9. The recent DrillScore announcements (Havieron approval, March quarter and the 30 March resource) were all scored positive.
Risks & caveats
- The Telfer reserve uses A$4,000/oz gold, about one-third below the ~A$5,930/oz spot quoted in the release, and the Havieron reserve uses A$2,500/oz, so the reserve is sensitive to the price deck.
- The Telfer reserve is built on the December 2025 resource plus a March 2026 West Dome classification update, and reflects roughly the first half of the FY26 drilling program.
- The stated upside (42% more gold from Inferred material inside the West Dome pit shell, and 8% more from underground shapes) is not reserve and depends on further drilling and conversion studies.
- Dump leach recovers 30-50% of gold and no copper, and the historical stockpiles rely on recent bulk processing trials.
What's next
- Studies on West Dome Underground (WDU) and Vertical Stockwork Corridor (VSC), which could add underground reserves - not stated
- Continued Telfer drilling at current rates to support further Resource and Reserve growth and Inferred to Indicated conversion - into FY27
- Ongoing open pit conversion drilling and mine optimisation studies at West Dome - not stated
Questions worth asking
- What would the Telfer and Havieron reserves look like at current spot gold, and what price sensitivities beyond the stated ±10% has the company run?
- When will the WDU and VSC studies be completed, and how much reserve would they add?
- How much of the Inferred gold inside the West Dome pit shell does the company expect to convert, and what drilling is needed?
- Why is the Havieron long-term price of A$2,500/oz unchanged when spot is far higher?
- What is the cash balance at 30 June 2026, and how much of Facility B is drawn?
What it means
For someone following Greatland, this is a reserve update that lifts the stated mine life at Telfer and confirms the Havieron reserve, but it contains no new drilling and no new cash information. The value of the reserve depends on the gold price assumptions, which sit far below current spot, and on whether the West Dome Inferred material and the WDU and VSC studies convert over time. The company's share price is driven by many factors beyond this release, so the reserve should be weighed alongside the wider market and the company's own cash and development plans. This is general information only, not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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