Production - ASX:NST
Northern Star delivers FY26 gold sold of 1,543koz, above revised 1,500koz guidance; AISC due in July
Northern Star says it sold 433koz of gold in the June quarter and 1,543koz for FY26, above its revised guidance of more than 1,500koz. All three production centres met their individual guidance, and cash and bullion rose to A$1,255 million with no corporate bank debt. AISC has not yet been released and will come in the June quarterly report on 29 July 2026.
(price sensitive) - Northern Star Resources announced: "Production Update" (1 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- FY26 gold sold was a preliminary 1,543koz, against revised Group guidance of above 1,500koz.
- Kalgoorlie sold 844koz for the year (guidance above 830koz), including 468koz from KCGM (revised guidance met).
- Yandal sold 434koz (guidance above 420koz) and Pogo sold 265koz (guidance above 250koz).
- Cash and bullion was A$1,255 million at 30 June 2026, up from A$1,183 million at 31 March 2026, with no corporate bank debt (unaudited).
- AISC is not yet disclosed, so the cost margin on this production cannot be measured from this announcement.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Cash
- $1.3bn
- Debt
- $0
- Gold produced
- 433,000 oz
- Guidance
- FY26 gold sold guidance (revised 13 March 2026) met: Group 1,543koz vs above 1,500koz; Kalgoorlie 844koz vs above 830koz (KCGM 468koz, revised guidance met); Yandal 434koz vs above 420koz; Pogo 265koz vs above 250koz. Future gold sales guidance depends on KCGM Stage I commissioning timing.
Figures are for gold sold (not produced), preliminary and unaudited. The gold_oz value is the June quarter 433koz entered in ounces. Cash is cash and bullion at 30 June 2026 (A$1,255 million, up from A$1,183 million at 31 March 2026), with no corporate bank debt. A$129 million was spent on buy-backs during the quarter under the A$500 million on-market program; this is not a capital raising. Operating cash flow, Appendix 5B items and AISC were not given in this announcement, so the funding runway cannot be derived from it. The June quarterly report on 29 July is the place to check these.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal positive, and on day 1 the stock moved +2.1% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: +5.7% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($18.80 on 1 Jul 2026), with day-1 volume 0.8x the 20-day average.
NST's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, NST rose on day 1 8 times and fell 1 times - an average move of +3.5%.
No past price reactions for Northern Star are on record in DrillScore's database, so no pattern can be drawn. The share price was A$18.80 before release and A$25.39 at the time of this analysis, a move that cannot be attributed to this release alone given the large sector and gold moves over the same period. Production updates of this kind are often read against guidance and AISC, so the reaction may depend heavily on the cost figure due on 29 July.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for NST and it isn't advice.
After 41 other announcements read as 'positive', stocks moved +1.8% by day 1, +2.3% by day 5 and +0.9% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.8%
- Day 5
- +2.3%
- Day 20
- +0.9%
Only 1 of NST's earlier announcements have traded - too few to show a pattern.
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved -8.5% (falling). After 34 past gold announcements released into a falling gold index, stocks moved +1.8% by day 1, +4.1% by day 5 and +11.4% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.8%
- Day 5
- +4.1%
- Day 20
- +11.4%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,082 | US$3,886 | -4.8% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$5,905 | A$5,737 | -2.9% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.12 | US$6.09 | -0.5% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6913 | 0.6774 | -2.0% |
Gold fell from US$4,082.4/oz (A$5,905.4/oz) at release on 1 July 2026 to US$3,886.3/oz (A$5,737.08/oz) now, a fall of about 4.8% in US dollars and 2.9% in A$. Because AISC is not yet disclosed, margins at spot cannot be assessed from this release. The gold miners ETF (GDX) and the ASX gold index (XGD) rose strongly since release, while the spot gold price fell, so sector moves are not following the metal price in this period. The AUD/USD rate fell to 0.6774 and the US 10-year yield rose to 5.154 percent, both of which weigh on US dollar gold prices in A$ terms.
Against NST's own history
DrillScore holds no earlier intercepts, cash figures, raisings or price reactions for Northern Star, so this release cannot be compared with prior drilling or funding in the database. The announcement itself gives the 31 March 2026 cash figure of A$1,183 million. The last analysed announcement was the 10 June 2026 letter on the Elliott stake, which referred to a CEO search and no current sale process. This release reports delivery against guidance that was revised on 13 March 2026.
Risks & caveats
- AISC, the key cost measure for margins, is not yet reported and is due with the June quarterly report.
- Gold sold and cash figures are preliminary and unaudited.
- KCGM Stage I commissioning in early FY27 will determine future gold sales guidance, so timing slippage could affect FY27 numbers.
- A$129 million of the cash position went on share buy-backs during the quarter under the A$500 million program.
What's next
- June 2026 quarterly results and AISC disclosure - Wednesday 29 July 2026
- KCGM Mill Expansion Stage I commissioning (throughput 13Mtpa to 27Mtpa), which will set future gold sales guidance - early FY27
- KCGM Stage II Gidji consolidation to the Fimiston mill completed - end of calendar year 2026
Questions worth asking
- What is the June quarter and FY26 AISC in A$ per ounce, compared with the prior year and guidance?
- How much of the A$1,255 million is bullion, and what were operating and investing cash flows in the June quarter?
- When will KCGM Stage I commissioning start, and what FY27 gold sales guidance will follow?
- How much of the A$500 million buy-back remains, and how is it being funded alongside the mill expansion?
What it means
This is a production update that shows Northern Star met or beat each of its revised FY26 gold sales targets. The cash position rose over the June quarter despite a A$129 million buy-back. The main unanswered question is cost: AISC is not yet out, so the margin on this production cannot be judged. Investors following the stock should look for the AISC figure and the KCGM commissioning timetable in the June quarterly report. This is general information only and not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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