Results - ASX:NST
Northern Star FY26: underlying NPAT A$1.8B on 1.54Moz gold sold; FY27 AISC guidance A$3,050-3,450/oz
Northern Star's FY26 results show underlying NPAT of A$1,789M (up 26%) on 1.54Moz of gold sold, but AISC rose 25% to A$2,698/oz and underlying free cash flow was only A$190M after A$2.5B of capital spending. FY27 guidance is for 1.50-1.65Moz sold at an AISC of A$3,050-3,450/oz, with A$1.70-2.02B of growth capital including the KCGM mill expansion and Hemi. The release contains no drilling results; its resource and reserve figures are restated from the 3 June 2026 release.
(price sensitive) - Northern Star Resources announced: "FY26 Financial Results Presentation" (21 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Underlying NPAT A$1,789M (up 26%) and underlying EBITDA A$4,271M (up 22%, a 56% margin) on revenue of A$7,623M (up 19%).
- Gold sold fell 6% to 1,543koz, AISC rose 25% to A$2,698/oz, and the average realised gold price rose 26% to A$4,925/oz.
- Operating cash flow was A$3,183M, but underlying free cash flow was only A$190M after A$2,494M of capex, A$273M of equipment finance and leases and A$219M of exploration.
- Cash and bullion fell 35% to A$1,235M. There is no corporate debt, A$1,750M of undrawn facilities, gearing of 10% and leverage of 0.1x.
- FY27 guidance: gold sold 1,500-1,650koz, AISC A$3,050-3,450/oz, total growth capital A$1,700-2,020M and exploration A$230-250M.
- FY26 shareholder returns were A$785M of dividends declared and paid plus A$129M of buy-back, A$914M in total. The FY26 dividend was 55cps, fully franked.
- KCGM mill expansion capex is now A$1.75-1.81B against an initial estimate of A$1.53B. The Hemi final investment decision is targeted for late FY27, subject to permitting.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Cash
- $1.0bn
- Debt
- $1.7bn
- Undrawn facilities
- $1.8bn
- Operating cash flow (quarter)
- $3.2bn
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $219m
- Gold produced
- 1,543,406 oz
- AISC
- A$2,698/oz (margin about A$3,720/oz at the day's gold price)
- Revenue
- $7.6bn
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance: gold sold 1,500-1,650koz in total (Kalgoorlie 850-970koz, Yandal 400-420koz, Pogo 250-260koz; KCGM 550-650koz). AISC A$3,050-3,450/oz in total (Pogo converted at AUD:USD 0.70). Sustaining capital A$850-915M. Growth capital A$1,700-2,020M, including KCGM mill A$350-470M and Hemi A$200-250M. Exploration A$230-250M. D&A A$1,000-1,200/oz. FY27 cash tax A$450-550M, including A$300-350M of cash tax benefits tied to the Hemi acquisition. FY26 guidance outcome is not stated in this presentation; the 2 July 2026 release (per DrillScore's record) said FY26 gold sold met revised guidance.
Figures are FY26 full-year (year to 30 June 2026) in A$, so no currency conversion applies. The operating cash flow and exploration figures are full-year, not quarterly. Cash of A$1,018M excludes bullion; cash and bullion is A$1,235M. Debt of A$1,725M = Senior Notes A$861M + equipment financing A$535M + lease liabilities A$329M, with corporate debt nil. Undrawn A$1,750M = two A$875M revolving facilities. Exploration of A$219M is the cash flow figure; the AISC table shows A$173M. Gold sold is 1,543,406 oz per slide 7 (the AISC table shows 1,543,405 oz). Net debt is A$489M after cash and bullion. The A$500M buy-back (A$128.9M in FY26) is cash out, not a capital raising. Investing cash flow, burn, funding quarters, shares on issue and options are not stated in this presentation.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
Resource / reserve
- Tonnes
- 1,617.5 Mt
- Grade
- 1.70 g/t Au
- Contained metal
- 88,872.00 koz
- What changed
- Restated from the 3 June 2026 Resources and Reserves Update (as at 31 March 2026), not a new estimate. Total Mineral Resources 88.9Moz (inclusive of Ore Reserves), including 35.7Moz in the Inferred category. Ore Reserves 28.4Moz (627.2Mt at 1.4 g/t). Hemi has 13.2Moz of Mineral Resources and 5.5Moz of Ore Reserves. Mineral Resources rose from 70.7Moz at March 2025, including Hemi +13.2Moz, Kalgoorlie +3.6Moz, Pogo +3.1Moz, Yandal -0.4Moz and the CTP JV divestment -1.3Moz.
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved -2.2% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: -3.7% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($22.54 on 19 Aug 2026), with day-1 volume 1.6x the 20-day average.
NST's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, NST rose on day 1 8 times and fell 1 times - an average move of +3.4%; after financial results alone, +6.2%.
DrillScore holds no earlier price reactions for Northern Star, so there is no company-specific pattern to compare. The share price was A$22.54 at the 19 August close and is A$25.39 now, about 12.6% higher since release. Over the same period gold miner funds fell (GDX -16.1%, GDXJ -21.8%) and the ASX gold index was little changed (-0.4%). The move cannot be attributed to these results alone, because gold, the dollar and bond yields also moved.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for NST and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.6% by day 1, +1.0% by day 5 and +0.8% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.6%
- Day 5
- +1.0%
- Day 20
- +0.8%
After its earlier announcements, NST moved +1.7% by day 1, +1.7% by day 5 and +1.1% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.7%
- Day 5
- +1.7%
- Day 20
- +1.1%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved +22.2% (rising). After 38 past gold announcements released into a rising gold index, stocks moved +1.7% by day 1, +2.4% by day 5 and -4.5% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.7%
- Day 5
- +2.4%
- Day 20
- -4.5%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,545 | US$3,886 | -14.5% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,418 | A$5,737 | -10.6% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.49 | US$6.09 | -6.1% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7082 | 0.6774 | -4.3% |
Gold fell after the release. COMEX gold moved from US$4,545.3/oz on 19 August to US$3,886.3/oz now (down 14.5%), and in A$ from A$6,418.10 to A$5,737.08/oz (down 10.6%). The Australian dollar also weakened, from US$0.7082 to US$0.6774. The FY26 realised price was A$4,925/oz, so spot now sits above that average. Against FY27 AISC guidance of A$3,050-3,450/oz, spot leaves roughly A$2,300-2,700/oz before depreciation, tax and growth capital. The presentation does not state its price deck. Sector mood weakened: GDX fell 16.1%, GDXJ fell 21.8%, the ASX gold index XGD was little changed (-0.4%), the US dollar index rose 4.6% and the US 10-year yield rose 0.50 points to 5.154%. Higher yields and a stronger US dollar usually weigh on gold, although the weaker Australian dollar cushions A$ gold prices.
Against NST's own history
DrillScore holds no drilling intercepts for Northern Star. Against its own record: cash at the June 2026 quarter was A$1,018M excluding bullion, with undrawn facilities of A$1,750M unchanged and quarterly operating cash flow of A$1,212M. The 2 July 2026 release (FY26 gold sold 1,543koz, meeting revised guidance) gave cash and bullion of A$1,255M, against A$1,235M here. The June quarter AISC was A$2,651/oz against A$2,698/oz for the full year. No capital raisings are on record. The database debt figure of A$845.1M is on a different basis from this presentation's A$1,725M total debt. Earlier analysed announcements scored 50 to 66 on DrillScore's scale: the 2 July production release was 'positive' (66), the 29 July quarterly 'mixed' (50), and the 2 July CEO change 'mixed' (50).
Risks & caveats
- Costs are rising: AISC was up 25% in FY26 and is guided to A$3,050-3,450/oz for FY27, above the FY26 actual of A$2,698/oz.
- Cash conversion is thin: underlying free cash flow of A$190M sits against A$914M returned to shareholders, and cash and bullion fell 35% over the year.
- The KCGM mill expansion cost has risen to A$1.75-1.81B from A$1.53B. Ramp-up uses lower-grade feed in 1H FY27, and the expected 1-2% Stage II recovery uplift is not yet proven.
- Hemi reserves rest on feasibility assumptions the company is still updating (mine sequencing and costings). The FID depends on permits still in progress.
- Gold has fallen since release (US$ spot down 14.5%). The FY27 cost guidance does not depend on the gold price, but cash generation and the reserve-backed profile do.
What's next
- Completion and commissioning of KCGM Stage II (single processing hub) - late 1H FY27, as stated
- Tie-in of the expanded 27Mtpa KCGM processing facility - September, as stated (year not stated)
- Hemi final investment decision, subject to permitting - late FY27, as stated
- Hemi state and federal permits, then secondary approvals before early works - not stated
- New Managing Director and CEO start (Suresh Vadnagra, per the 2 July 2026 announcement in DrillScore's record, not this PDF) - 5 October 2026
Questions worth asking
- What gold price deck underpins the FY27 guidance and the reserve-backed production profile, and what is the sensitivity at current spot?
- How much of the A$1,700-2,020M of FY27 growth capital is committed, and how will it be funded if free cash flow stays near FY26's A$190M?
- What drives the rise in AISC from A$2,698/oz to A$3,050-3,450/oz, particularly at Yandal and KCGM?
- What spend and ounces sit behind the A$23/oz cost of resource additions, given the bridge shows about 6.3Moz of net organic additions?
- Why is cash and bullion A$1,235M in this presentation when the 2 July 2026 release gave A$1,255M?
What it means
For someone following Northern Star, FY26 shows a large, profitable producer with strong margins and a conservative balance sheet. The next year is about spending: FY27 guidance has volumes roughly flat to slightly higher than FY26 at the midpoint, but unit costs and growth capital both rise. Cash generation therefore depends on gold prices and on KCGM and Hemi delivering on schedule. Gold has fallen since the release and the share price has moved, but the market reaction reflects gold prices and sector moves as much as this report. This is general information, not advice on whether to buy, sell or hold.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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