Results - ASX:NST
Northern Star FY26 profit up 24%, free cash flow down 64%; FY27 gold guided at 1,500-1,650koz
Northern Star reported FY26 net profit after tax of A$1,664.3m, up 24%, helped by a 26% higher average gold price. Underlying free cash flow fell 64% to A$190.4m as mine development spending and tax payments rose, and FY27 guidance is 1,500-1,650koz of gold sold at AISC of A$3,050-3,450/oz. The key test is the ramp-up of the expanded KCGM plant, which the company says has produced limited operating data so far.
(price sensitive) - Northern Star Resources announced: "FY26 Financial Results" (6 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Reported NPAT was A$1,664.3m, up 24%, and underlying NPAT was A$1,789.5m, up 26%, as the average realised gold price rose 26% to A$4,925/oz.
- Gold sold fell 6% to 1.54Moz, while revenue rose 19% to A$7,623.1m.
- Underlying free cash flow fell 64% to A$190.4m, as payments for mine properties rose to A$2,493.4m and corporate tax payments reached A$661m.
- FY27 guidance is 1,500-1,650koz of gold sold at AISC of A$3,050-3,450/oz, with KCGM at 550-650koz during commissioning and ramp-up.
- Group capital investment is guided at A$2,550-2,935m, including A$1,700-2,020m of growth capital, and exploration at A$230-250m.
- The final dividend of 30 cents takes FY26 to 55 cents per share, fully franked, and A$129m of the A$500m buy-back had been completed by the release date.
- The release contains no new drill results, Mineral Resource estimate or Ore Reserve estimate.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Cash
- $1.2bn
- Debt
- $1.4bn
- Undrawn facilities
- $1.8bn
- Operating cash flow (quarter)
- $3.2bn
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $219m
- Gold produced
- 1,540,000 oz
- Revenue
- $7.6bn
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance: group gold sold 1,500-1,650koz (Kalgoorlie 850-970koz, Yandal 400-420koz, Pogo 250-260koz); KCGM 550-650koz during commissioning; AISC A$3,050-3,450/oz. FY26 AISC is not stated in this release. The release does not state whether FY26 guidance was met, raised or cut.
Figures are full-year FY26 (year to 30 June 2026), not a single quarter, taken from the Financial Results. There is no Appendix 5B in this release, so burn and funding quarters are not stated. Exploration spend is the A$219.3m payments for exploration and evaluation line, shown here as a positive amount. Cash of A$1,235.3m includes bullion and short-term deposits; the balance sheet text gives cash and cash equivalents of about A$1.0bn. Undrawn figure is the A$1.75bn of corporate bank facilities that remained undrawn at year end. Gold figure is the release's 1.54Moz gold sold, rounded; the 2 July 2026 release gave 1,543koz. FY26 dividends paid were A$763m and A$129m of buy-back had been completed. All figures are A$, so no currency conversion was needed. Shares on issue are not stated in this release.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved -2.2% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: -3.7% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($22.54 on 19 Aug 2026), with day-1 volume 1.6x the 20-day average.
NST's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, NST rose on day 1 8 times and fell 1 times - an average move of +3.4%; after financial results alone, +6.2%.
Our database has no recorded share price reactions to earlier price-sensitive news from this company, so there is no local pattern to compare. Since the release, the share price has moved from A$22.54 (19 August 2026 close) to A$25.39, about 13% higher, while GDX and GDXJ fell 16% and 22% and XGD was broadly flat. This move cannot be attributed to the results alone. Earlier analysed releases from this company scored 66 for the 2 July production update (positive) and 50 for the June quarterly and the CEO announcements (mixed).
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for NST and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.6% by day 1, +1.0% by day 5 and +0.8% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.6%
- Day 5
- +1.0%
- Day 20
- +0.8%
After its earlier announcements, NST moved +1.7% by day 1, +1.7% by day 5 and +1.1% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.7%
- Day 5
- +1.7%
- Day 20
- +1.1%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved +22.2% (rising). After 38 past gold announcements released into a rising gold index, stocks moved +1.7% by day 1, +2.4% by day 5 and -4.5% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.7%
- Day 5
- +2.4%
- Day 20
- -4.5%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,545 | US$3,886 | -14.5% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,418 | A$5,737 | -10.6% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.49 | US$6.09 | -6.1% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7082 | 0.6774 | -4.3% |
Gold has fallen since the release. COMEX gold was US$4,545.3/oz on 19 August 2026 and is now US$3,886.3/oz, down 14.5%. In A$ terms it moved from A$6,418.1/oz to A$5,737.08/oz, down 10.6%. The softer Australian dollar (AUD/USD from 0.7082 to 0.6774) cushioned the A$ price. The US dollar index rose 4.6% and the US 10-year yield rose 0.50 points, both usually a headwind for gold. Spot is still well above the FY27 AISC guidance of A$3,050-3,450/oz and the FY26 average realised price of A$4,925/oz. The release does not state the gold price deck behind its FY27 guidance, so the guidance cannot be checked directly against spot. The release says its cost guidance assumes higher oil prices; the assumed oil price is not stated, and WTI is now US$88.56/bbl. Sector mood has turned down: since the release, GDX is down 16.1%, GDXJ down 21.8% and COPX down 21.6%, while the ASX gold index XGD is broadly flat at down 0.4%.
Against NST's own history
Our database holds no earlier drill intercepts for Northern Star. The 2 July 2026 production update reported FY26 gold sold of 1,543koz, consistent with the 1.54Moz in this release. Our database holds two June quarter records with different cash figures: A$1,018m with A$1,750m undrawn facilities and A$845.1m of debt, and A$1,255m with no debt. This release shows A$1,235.3m of cash, bullion and short-term deposits and A$1,395.3m of borrowings, so these records should be reconciled. Our database shows 1,424.81m shares on issue, and the June quarter AISC of A$2,651/oz in our records is below the FY27 guidance range of A$3,050-3,450/oz, though the two figures may be on different bases. No capital raisings are on record. This release says Stuart Tonkin's employment is expected to end on 28 August 2026, consistent with the CEO transition in our records.
Risks & caveats
- KCGM ramp-up risk: the company says ore commissioning has generated limited operating data, and the lower end of the 550-650koz range includes commissioning risk.
- Cost pressure: about 5% portfolio inflation (A$115-125/oz), higher royalties and higher oil price assumptions (A$60-75/oz) push FY27 AISC up.
- Cash generation is thinner than earnings: underlying free cash flow of A$190.4m sits against A$763m of dividends paid, a buy-back and A$2,550-2,935m of planned group capital investment.
- Borrowings rose 11% to A$1,395.3m while cash, bullion and short-term deposits fell 35% to A$1,235.3m.
- A hedge book of 788koz at A$3,397/oz remains committed at 30 June, so part of the FY27 ounces are not exposed to spot prices.
What's next
- Expanded 27Mtpa KCGM plant tied in, followed by a measured ramp-up using initially lower-grade feed - Early September 2026, as stated
- September quarter gold sold forecast at approximately 350koz - September quarter 2026
- Final dividend of 30 cents per share, fully franked, paid after the record date - Record date 10 September 2026; payment date 15 October 2026
- Stage II completion of the KCGM mill expansion, with processing consolidated into a single hub and recovery expected to rise 1-2% - Late 1H FY27, as stated
- Hemi Managed Aquifer Recharge trial results, to support the WA EPA secondary approval, engineering and scheduling - Not stated
- Hemi Final Investment Decision - Late FY27, as stated
Questions worth asking
- How much of the 550-650koz KCGM range depends on the expanded plant reaching sustained throughput and recovery, and what operating data will be published after the September tie-in?
- What drives the step-up from the June quarter AISC of A$2,651/oz in our records to FY27 guidance of A$3,050-3,450/oz, and how much is stockpile drawdown, royalties, inflation and reclassified sustaining capital?
- Which cash measure is correct for 30 June 2026, given A$1,235.3m here, about A$1.0bn in the text, and A$1,255m in the 2 July release?
- How will the A$2,550-2,935m capital programme, A$763m of dividends and the buy-back be funded if underlying free cash flow stays near A$190m?
- What cost and timing basis sits behind the Hemi Final Investment Decision targeted for late FY27?
What it means
For someone following Northern Star, this release is mainly about FY27 execution. FY26 earnings and the dividend look sound, but free cash flow was much weaker than earnings, with dividends, buy-backs and growth spending running ahead of it. The next tests are whether the expanded KCGM plant ramps up as planned from September 2026, whether FY27 unit costs come in within A$3,050-3,450/oz, and what the Hemi investment decision looks like. Gold prices have fallen sharply since the release, which affects the economics of this guidance. This is general information only and not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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