Quarterly - ASX:NST
Northern Star Sept quarter: 364koz sold at A$3,217/oz AISC; KCGM commissioning begins
Northern Star sold 364koz of gold in the September quarter at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$3,217/oz, up from A$2,651/oz in the June quarter. The KCGM Stage I plant tie-in was completed on 28 September, about two weeks late, and the expanded plant is in early commissioning. Cash and bullion were A$1,200m and FY27 guidance was kept unchanged.
(price sensitive) - Northern Star Resources announced: "September 2026 Quarterly Activities Report" (15 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- Gold sold was 363,891oz (364koz) at an AISC of A$3,217/oz, up from A$2,651/oz in the June quarter, with gold revenue of A$1,819m at an average A$4,999/oz.
- FY27 guidance is unchanged at 1,500-1,650koz gold sold and an AISC of A$3,050-3,450/oz, with production weighted to the second half. The quarter's AISC sits inside that range.
- The KCGM Stage I tie-in was completed on 28 September, about two weeks late after thickener and ball mill issues. Milled tonnes, grade and recovery were lower than expected during the quarter.
- Cash was A$968m and bullion A$232m, A$1,200m in total, down from A$1,235m. Underlying free cash flow was A$(31)m after A$113m of tax and A$76m of equipment finance and leases.
- Exploration spend was A$56m for the quarter against FY27 guidance of A$230-250m. The release reports no drill results.
- A$500m of bank facilities was drawn on 9 October, ahead of the FY26 final dividend of A$0.30 per share paid on 15 October.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-09-30
- Cash
- $968m
- Undrawn facilities
- $1.8bn
- Operating cash flow (quarter)
- $809m
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $56.0m
- Shares on issue
- 1,425.4m
- Options, rights & convertibles
- 8.7m
- Gold produced
- 363,891 oz
- AISC
- A$3,217/oz (margin about A$2,715/oz at the day's gold price)
- Revenue
- $1.8bn
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance unchanged: gold sold 1,500-1,650koz (KCGM 850-970koz, Yandal 400-420koz, Pogo 250-260koz) at AISC of A$3,050-3,450/oz. KCGM forecast 550-650koz. Quarter AISC of A$3,217/oz sits inside the range. Production is weighted to 2H FY27. Nothing raised or cut in this report.
Gold sold is the metric, not produced. Cash and bullion were A$1,200m at 30 September: cash A$968m plus bullion A$232m awaiting settlement. Operating cash flow of A$809m is read from the Figure 6 cash waterfall, because this PDF has no Appendix 5B. The waterfall shows income tax A$113m, PP&E and mine properties A$600m, exploration A$51m, equipment finance and leases A$76m and other items A$4m (including FX). Investing cash flow is not stated as a single total. Underlying free cash flow was A$(31)m and cash and bullion fell from A$1,235m. Undrawn corporate bank facilities were A$1,750m at 30 September, with a further A$500m tranche added (total facilities A$2,250m). A$500m was drawn on 9 October ahead of the final dividend. Debt: US$600m senior notes due April 2033 at 6.125%, about A$845m at the 0.71 quarter rate. Total debt including leases is not stated, so debt is left blank. The A$500m on-market buyback bought no shares in the quarter. Quarter FX AUD:USD 0.71. Funding quarters are not stated because there is no Appendix 5B. The 1,425.4m shares on issue and 8.74m rights are as at the report date.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal mixed, and on day 1 the stock moved +2.5% against the gold index (XGD).
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($24.62 on 20 Oct 2026), with day-1 volume 1.0x the 20-day average.
NST's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, NST rose on day 1 8 times and fell 1 times - an average move of +3.9%.
DrillScore has no recorded share price reactions to this company's earlier price-sensitive news, so no pattern can be drawn. Since the release, the share price has moved from A$24.62 (close on 20 October) to A$25.39, about 3% higher. Over the same period GDX and GDXJ fell 5.2% and 8.2%, while the XGD rose 2.3%. Recent DrillScore reads on this stock have mostly been mixed, with the July FY26 gold-sold update rated positive. This describes the record only and is not a forecast.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for NST and it isn't advice.
After 39 other announcements read as 'mixed', stocks moved +0.5% by day 1, +0.6% by day 5 and +0.7% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +0.5%
- Day 5
- +0.6%
- Day 20
- +0.7%
After its earlier announcements, NST moved +1.0% by day 1, -0.2% by day 5 and +1.9% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.0%
- Day 5
- -0.2%
- Day 20
- +1.9%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved -3.8% (falling). After 34 past gold announcements released into a falling gold index, stocks moved +1.9% by day 1, +4.2% by day 5 and +11.4% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.9%
- Day 5
- +4.2%
- Day 20
- +11.4%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,143 | US$3,886 | -6.2% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$5,932 | A$5,737 | -3.3% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.57 | US$6.09 | -7.3% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6983 | 0.6774 | -3.0% |
At release on 20 October, spot gold was US$4,142.6/oz (A$5,932/oz). It is now US$3,886.3/oz (A$5,737/oz). The quarter's realised price was A$4,999/oz, below the release-day spot. Spot in A$ is well above the quarter's A$3,217/oz AISC, the top of FY27 guidance (A$3,450/oz) and the hedged average of A$3,423/oz, so the margin at spot is wide. The hedge book, however, locks in lower prices. The AUD has weakened about 3% since release (0.6983 to 0.6774), which supports A$ gold prices. Oil fell from US$101.79 to US$88.56/bbl, easing the oil assumption built into FY27 guidance. Sector mood has been soft: GDX fell 5.2%, GDXJ 8.2% and COPX 12.5%, while the XGD rose 2.3% and the ASX 200 rose 3.0%. Silver fell 14.9%. The US 10-year yield is 5.15% and the DXY is up 1.7%, both headwinds for gold. Spot prices can move either way, and this is not a price forecast.
Against NST's own history
DrillScore's database holds no earlier intercepts or capital raisings for NST, so there is no drilling history to compare. Against the company's own record, AISC has risen from A$2,651/oz in the June quarter, cash and bullion has fallen from A$1,235m to A$1,200m, and undrawn facilities are unchanged at A$1,750m. The FY27 guidance is unchanged from the 20 August release. The database holds conflicting June quarter entries (cash of A$1,235.3m or A$1,018m, debt from A$0 to A$1,725m, gold of 433,000oz or 1.54Moz). This analysis uses the report's own Table 3 and Figure 1 figures. Recent DrillScore history includes the CEO change effective 5 October and a rejected Gold Fields proposal on 28 September.
Risks & caveats
- The integrated KCGM plant is in early commissioning. Stage II commissioning is not due until early 2H FY27, so ramp-up and recovery risk remain.
- AISC rose from A$2,651/oz to A$3,217/oz as gold sold fell. The company blames grade and recovery impacts at Pogo and KCGM commissioning.
- 647.5koz of hedges remain at an average A$3,423/oz across H1 FY27 to H2 FY28, well below the spot gold price in A$ at the time of the release.
- Pogo's underground ore bin and main ore haulage were offline for much of the quarter. They are due back in late October, so the Pogo mining rate was below normal in September.
- Underlying free cash flow was negative in the quarter. The Hemi acquisition transaction costs are estimated at A$200-250m, and the Hemi FID is not due until late FY27.
What's next
- Pogo underground ore bin and main ore haulage return to service - late October 2026, with mining rates normalising through the December quarter
- KCGM Stage II commissioning (single processing hub, expected 1-2% recovery uplift) - early 2H FY27
- Hemi Project Final Investment Decision - late FY27
- Annual general meeting (hybrid) - 18 November 2026, 1:30pm AWST
- Ramone mine completes mining - December quarter 2026
- Next quarterly activities report - not stated
Questions worth asking
- What were KCGM's milled tonnes, head grade and recovery in October, and when will the integrated plant reach stable design throughput?
- What AISC path does the company expect for the December quarter, given that FY27 guidance is weighted to the second half?
- How much of the A$500m drawn on 9 October will be repaid, and what cash balance is targeted after the final dividend?
- How much of the 647.5koz hedge book, delivered at an average A$3,423/oz through FY28, will limit realised prices?
- Will the December quarter report include an Appendix 5B with a funding runway figure?
What it means
For someone following Northern Star, the quarter shows guidance held and AISC inside the range, with a large cash and bullion balance. Against that sit higher unit costs, a KCGM plant that began commissioning late and below expectations, and negative underlying free cash flow after tax. The next tests are whether the integrated KCGM plant reaches stable throughput and recovery, whether the second-half weighting of guidance is delivered, and how the hedge book and the Hemi decision play out. This is general information only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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