Capricorn lifts reserves to 5.24Moz and Mt Gibson PFS shows 260koz pa; 500koz pa is aspirational

What investors must know

1. Group Ore Reserves are 5.24 Moz of gold (company says up 33%) and Mineral Resources are 8.66 Moz (company says up 29%).
2. Mt Gibson PFS at A$5,500/oz gold: 260.9 koz a year steady-state in years 3 to 6, A$474m pre-production capital, 14-month pre-tax payback and A$6.1bn pre-tax NPV at 7.5%.
3. Mt Gibson Ore Reserve is 3.68 Moz: open pit 3.31 Moz plus a maiden underground reserve of 0.365 Moz, while the PFS mine plan uses 0.51 Moz of underground ore.
4. Karlawinda Ore Reserve is 1.57 Moz at A$2,600/oz with a stated 10-year mine life, and its expansion to 150 koz a year is due to commission in Q1 FY27.
5. The group outlook of '>400 koz a year' within 2.5 years of Mt Gibson start adds the 260 koz Mt Gibson target to Karlawinda's 150 koz target; 500 koz a year within 5 years is an aspiration only.
6. The company reports A$507m of cash and bullion and no debt, but gives no date for that balance.
7. No new drill intercepts are reported; all figures are summarised from the releases dated 27 July 2026.

Disclosure checks - the ASX's own focus areas

• Drill-hole table (collars, dip, azimuth, depth, every intercept)
  n/a
• JORC Table 1, Section 1 - sampling techniques and data
  n/a
• JORC Table 1, Section 2 - reporting of exploration results
  n/a
• Competent person statement
  pass
• Metal equivalents with recovery assumptions

  Formula and recoveries shown.

  pass
• Balanced reporting - low and high grades both shown

  No drill results are reported, so the drill-reporting balance test does not apply. The presentation is promotional in tone ('compelling', 'stand-out', 'industry leading costs'), and its headline economics use a higher gold price than the reserves; weigh both when reading it.

  n/a
• No visual estimates - assays only
  pass

Red flags and notes

Why these matter: JORC Table 1 - metal equivalents - balanced reporting - visual estimates

Money: can they follow it up?

Cash

$507m

Debt

$0

Guidance

No actual production is reported in this deck. Forecasts only: a '>400 koz a year' group outlook within 2.5 years of Mt Gibson start; Mt Gibson steady-state 260.9 koz a year (PFS, years 3 to 6); Karlawinda target 150 koz a year. PFS AISC of A$1,870/oz and LOM operating cost of A$1,721/oz are study forecasts at the study price. Nothing is shown as met, raised or cut.

The deck gives A$507m of cash and bullion combined (not split), with no date. Bullion is valued at the gold price, so the total moves with gold. The company says it is debt free and that Mt Gibson development is fully funded; the PFS shows A$474m pre-production capital. No Appendix 5B, operating cash flow, exploration spend or funding runway is given, so the funding period cannot be assessed from this document. Amounts are A$ as stated.

Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway

Resource / reserve

Tonnes

348.9 Mt

Grade

0.80 g/t Au

Contained metal

8,659.00 koz

What changed

Total Mineral Resources 8,659 koz (8.66 Moz, company says up 29%) at a 0.3 g/t cut-off for open pit and 1.5 g/t underground, A$2,800/oz price; 1,577 koz is inferred. Ore Reserves are 195.7 Mt at 0.8 g/t, 5,241 koz (5.24 Moz, company says up 33%) at A$2,200 to A$2,600/oz. The deck's references list a prior 4.0 Moz group reserve statement dated 6 October 2025.

Resources vs reserves explained

How the price reacted

From the last close before the market could trade on it ($11.90 on 24 Jul 2026), with day-1 volume 1.7x the 20-day average.

CMM's past price-sensitive news

After 9 earlier announcements, CMM rose on day 1 3 times and fell 6 times - an average move of -0.2%.

• 28 Oct 26-0.2%
• 23 Oct 26+3.6%
• 2 Oct 26-0.4%
• 22 Sep 26+1.0%
• 26 Aug 26-2.4%
• 25 Aug 26+0.2%
• 13 Aug 26-1.5%
• 13 Aug 26-1.5%
• 30 Jul 26-0.2%

DrillScore has no recorded price reactions to earlier CMM news. The supplied prices show A$11.90 at the 24 July 2026 close and A$13.63 now, within a 52-week range of A$9.41 to A$18.26. Over the same period the XGD rose 20.4%, so the share price move cannot be attributed to this release alone. The reaction history for this stock is too short to describe how this type of news is typically received.

Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results

The historical pattern

What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for CMM and it isn't advice.

A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out

The market it landed in

Gold is A$5,737/oz now, 1.8% lower than at release (A$5,843/oz) and 10.6% lower than a year ago; in US dollars it is US$3,886/oz, 4.5% lower than at release. The A$5,500/oz study price sits below spot at both dates, so the study does not assume a price above today's level. The reserve price of A$2,200 to A$2,600/oz is less than half of current spot. Higher US yields (the 10-year rose from 4.68% to 5.15%) and a 1.9% stronger US dollar index are headwinds for gold, while a 2.8% weaker Australian dollar lifts the A$ gold price relative to the US$ move. The XGD rose 20.4% since release and GDX 8.5%, while A$ gold fell 1.8%, so the sector has moved for reasons beyond the gold price over this window. Silver and copper are lower since release; copper has little direct bearing on this gold company. Market moves since release are not a read on this announcement.

Against CMM's own history

DrillScore holds no earlier intercepts, cash figures, raisings or analysed announcements for CMM, so comparisons are limited to the company's own history shown in this deck: KGP reserves 892 koz (2019) to 1,572 koz (2026); MGGP open pit reserves 1,450 koz (2023) to 3,305 koz (2026); a 4.0 Moz group reserve statement dated 6 October 2025; and Golden Range resource of 1.38 Moz from May 2025 (Warriedar). Reserve growth has been reported at each update shown. Cash history is not available, so the A$507m cannot be compared with earlier periods.

Questions worth asking

• What gold price and cost basis underpin the Mt Gibson Ore Reserve, and why does the PFS use A$5,500/oz when reserves use A$2,200 to A$2,600/oz?
• What resource category and cut-off supply the 0.51 Moz of underground mine plan ounces above the 0.365 Moz underground Ore Reserve, and is any inferred material in the 260 koz a year target?
• Were the Q1 FY27 Karlawinda commissioning and Q2 FY27 Mt Gibson on-site start targets met, and what is the status of the state permits?
• When was the A$507m cash and bullion balance measured, and how much of it is bullion valued at the current gold price?
• Will the Golden Range resource be updated from the May 2025 estimate, and does the 1.38 Moz figure include or exclude the 925 koz AuEq antimony resource?