Results - ASX:CMM
Capricorn posts record FY26: A$769.3m sales, A$504.8m net cash, 5c final dividend, FY27 guide 137-147koz
Capricorn Metals reported record FY26 results to 30 June 2026, with sales revenue of A$769.3m from 123,096 oz sold at an average A$6,241/oz and underlying profit before tax of A$467.5m. Net cash rose by A$149.1m to A$504.8m after spending on the Karlawinda Expansion and early Mt Gibson works, and the board declared a fully franked 5c final dividend, taking FY26 to 10c. FY27 guidance is 137,000-147,000 oz at an AISC of A$1,900-2,100/oz, which relies on the expanded Karlawinda plant reaching about 150,000 oz a year after commissioning.
(price sensitive) - Capricorn Metals announced: "Record FY Results and 5cps Fully Franked Final Dividend" (5 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- FY26 sales revenue was A$769.3m from 123,096 oz sold, up 46% on FY25 (A$528.2m).
- Underlying profit before tax was A$467.5m (up 71%), while statutory profit before tax was A$404.8m after A$58.0m of non-cash hedge adjustments and a A$4.7m option fair value movement.
- Operating cash flow was A$470.2m and net cash finished at A$504.8m, up A$149.1m, after A$133.4m on Karlawinda Expansion and early Mt Gibson works, A$74.0m on exploration and A$21.0m on feasibility studies.
- The board declared a fully franked final dividend of 5c (A$22.8m), making FY26 dividends 10c (A$45.7m), with ex-dividend on 16 September 2026 and payment on 9 October 2026.
- FY27 gold guidance of 137,000-147,000 oz is above the 123,589 oz produced in FY26, but the AISC guidance of A$1,900-2,100/oz is higher than FY26's A$1,629/oz.
- The company expects a single income tax payment of A$90-100m in FY27 as it becomes a tax payer, with normal estimates-based tax from FY27 onward.
- Gold output is forecast to rise from about 120,000 oz a year to about 150,000 oz a year once Karlawinda Expansion commissioning is complete in the current quarter.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-06-30
- Cash
- $505m
- Operating cash flow (quarter)
- $470m
- Exploration spend (quarter)
- $74.0m
- Gold produced
- 123,589 oz
- AISC
- A$1,629/oz (margin about A$4,865/oz at the day's gold price)
- Revenue
- $769m
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance: 137,000-147,000 oz gold at AISC of A$1,900-2,100/oz. FY26 actual was 123,589 oz at A$1,629/oz, against FY26 guidance that the announcement does not quote numerically. The June quarter report (31 July 2026) carried the same FY27 range.
Full-year FY26 figures (year to 30 June 2026), as the announcement gives no June quarter cash flow and no Appendix 5B. Operating cash flow of A$470.2m and exploration spend of A$74.0m (MGGP and KGP) are therefore full-year figures, not quarterly. Cash of A$504.8m equals the reported net cash; debt is not stated in this announcement, though the June quarter report recorded nil debt. Gold of 123,589 oz is produced at KGP; 123,096 oz were sold at an average A$6,241/oz. Other FY26 uses of cash: A$133.4m on Karlawinda Expansion and early Mt Gibson works, A$21.0m on feasibility studies, and A$22.8m maiden dividend paid. Expected FY27 tax payment of A$90-100m. No capital raising. All figures are in A$ as reported, with no conversion. Shares on issue and an Appendix 5B funding estimate are not in this announcement.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal positive, and on day 1 the stock moved -0.9% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: -5.3% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($17.78 on 26 Aug 2026), with day-1 volume 0.9x the 20-day average.
CMM's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, CMM rose on day 1 4 times and fell 5 times - an average move of +1.8%.
DrillScore has no recorded share price reactions to earlier price-sensitive news for Capricorn, so no pattern in how the market has received this kind of news can be drawn. Since the close before release, the share price has moved from A$17.78 to A$13.63 (52-week range A$9.41-18.26). That fall is larger than the XGD fall of 11.9%, which suggests stock-specific pressure on top of the sector move, though the announcement itself does not explain it. This describes past movements only and is not a forecast.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for CMM and it isn't advice.
After 41 other announcements read as 'positive', stocks moved +1.9% by day 1, +2.4% by day 5 and +1.2% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.9%
- Day 5
- +2.4%
- Day 20
- +1.2%
After its earlier announcements, CMM moved +2.1% by day 1, +1.5% by day 5 and -1.1% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +2.1%
- Day 5
- +1.5%
- Day 20
- -1.1%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved +32.5% (rising). After 38 past gold announcements released into a rising gold index, stocks moved +2.0% by day 1, +2.8% by day 5 and -4.2% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +2.0%
- Day 5
- +2.8%
- Day 20
- -4.2%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,653 | US$3,886 | -16.5% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,494 | A$5,737 | -11.7% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.59 | US$6.09 | -7.7% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7165 | 0.6774 | -5.5% |
At release (26 August 2026 close), gold was US$4,653/oz (A$6,494/oz). It is now US$3,886/oz (A$5,737/oz). The FY26 realised average of A$6,241/oz sits between those two points, and current A$ spot is below it. Spot still sits well above the FY27 AISC guidance range of A$1,900-2,100/oz, but the announcement does not state the gold price assumed for FY27, so the margin cannot be checked against a stated deck. Sector mood has turned negative since release: the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index (XGD) is down 11.9%, VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) is down 20.3%, the junior gold ETF (GDXJ) is down 25.5%, and copper miners (COPX) are down 27.5%. Silver is down 27.8%. Over the same period the US dollar index rose 4.3% and the US 10-year yield rose from 4.664% to 5.154%, both of which usually weigh on gold. Copper fell 7.7%, while the wider ASX 200 was down only 0.5%.
Against CMM's own history
The 31 July 2026 June quarter report recorded 30,437 oz at an AISC of A$1,648/oz, with cash of A$504.81m, nil debt and self-funding operations. This announcement's cash of A$504.8m and FY26 production of 123,589 oz are consistent with that report. Cash was reported as A$507m on 27 July 2026. On 27 July the company lifted reserves to 5.24Moz and a Mt Gibson pre-feasibility study showed 260koz a year, which this announcement does not repeat. No capital raisings are on record, and FY26 shows the company funding its growth from operating cash flow. The FY27 guidance matches the range given in the June quarter report, so it is not a new change. Recent acquisitions of small tenements, including Big Springs and Piastri, carry no new drilling.
Risks & caveats
- The FY27 cost guidance of A$1,900-2,100/oz is well above FY26 AISC of A$1,629/oz and FY25 AISC of A$1,468/oz.
- Guidance assumes the expansion finishes commissioning in the current quarter and runs at about 150,000 oz a year for the last three quarters. At the time of the release, commissioning was still closing out electrical scopes in the crushing circuit, with ore commissioning to follow in the coming weeks.
- Underlying earnings exclude A$58.0m of non-cash hedge adjustments, so statutory net profit after tax of A$282.2m is lower than the underlying A$327.2m.
- Cash demands are rising at the same time: the A$90-100m FY27 tax payment, the dividend, and growth spending on Karlawinda Expansion and Mt Gibson, with Mt Gibson development targeted for Q2 FY27 subject to permitting.
- The company's profit and cash are tied to gold prices. The FY26 realised average of A$6,241/oz is above the current spot level, and the announcement does not state a gold price assumption for FY27 guidance.
What's next
- Karlawinda Expansion completes commissioning and moves to ore commissioning - Current quarter (Q1 FY27, to 30 September 2026), as stated
- Ex-dividend date for the 5c final dividend - 16 September 2026
- Record date for the final dividend - 17 September 2026
- Payment of the 5c final dividend - 9 October 2026
- Start of Mt Gibson development, subject to permitting - Q2 FY27, as stated
- Single income tax payment in relation to FY26 (A$90-100m) - FY27, as stated
- Delivery against FY27 production and AISC guidance - FY27 (year to 30 June 2027)
Questions worth asking
- Has Karlawinda Expansion completed commissioning and reached ore commissioning, and at what throughput is it running now?
- What gold price and A$/US$ exchange rate underlie the FY27 AISC guidance of A$1,900-2,100/oz, and what drives the rise from A$1,629/oz in FY26?
- What is the forecast cash balance after the A$90-100m tax payment, dividends and Mt Gibson development spending in FY27?
- What permits remain outstanding for Mt Gibson, and is the Q2 FY27 development start still on track?
- How much FY27 gold is hedged, and what would underlying earnings look like at current spot prices?
What it means
For someone following Capricorn, FY26 is a strong result on profit and cash, and the company has funded its growth and dividends from operations. The key test is the next twelve months: whether the expanded Karlawinda plant reaches about 150,000 oz a year, and whether costs stay within the A$1,900-2,100/oz guidance, which is higher than FY26. Tax payments, dividends and Mt Gibson spending will draw on the cash balance at the same time. The share price has fallen since release, largely with the sector and gold, so it reflects more than this report. This is general information, not personal advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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