Production - ASX:CMM
Capricorn KGP September quarter output 31,218oz; KEP construction finished on schedule
Capricorn says Karlawinda produced 31,218 oz of gold in the September 2026 quarter, in line with its FY27 mine plan, and that the Karlawinda Expansion Project was finished on schedule and within budget. Cash and gold on hand rose to A$535.0m, and Mt Gibson has received federal approval and finalised its major contracts. Quarterly AISC and cost detail are deferred to the full Quarterly Report in late October, so the September quarter cost figure is not yet known.
(price sensitive) - Capricorn Metals announced: "September 2026 Quarterly Production Update" (3 pages) - read the original
What investors must know
- KGP produced 31,218 oz of gold in the September 2026 quarter, up from 30,437 oz in the June quarter, which the company says is in line with the FY27 mine plan.
- KEP construction was completed on schedule and within budget, lifting processing capacity to 6.5Mtpa with expected production of 150,000 oz per year.
- Cash and gold on hand was A$535.0m at 30 September 2026, up from A$507.0m, after an underlying cash build of A$62.2m, A$42.7m of KEP and MGGP capex and an A$8.5m Big Springs cash component.
- FY27 guidance of 137,000-147,000 oz at an AISC of A$1,900-2,100/oz was reaffirmed, but the June quarter AISC was A$1,648/oz, so the guided cost range sits above that level.
- Mt Gibson (MGGP) has received federal EPBC approval, has its Environmental Review Document lodged with the public review closed, and has Part V secondary approvals lodged, with A$2.1m spent in the quarter.
- The release gives no September quarter AISC, cash flow breakdown or Appendix 5B, which are promised in the Quarterly Report later in October 2026.
Money: can they follow it up?
- Period ending
- 2026-09-30
- Cash
- $535m
- Gold produced
- 31,218 oz
- Guidance
- FY27 guidance of 137,000-147,000 oz at an AISC of A$1,900-2,100/oz. The company says the operation is on track and that the quarter is in line with the FY27 mine plan. The September quarter AISC is not given in this release. The June quarter AISC was A$1,648/oz (from DrillScore history).
Gold figure is ounces produced in the quarter, as stated. Cash of A$535.0m is cash and gold on hand at 30 September 2026, as stated; the release does not split the two. The June 2026 comparative of A$507.0m matches the figure in DrillScore history. The stated items reconcile: A$507.0m plus A$62.2m underlying build, less A$42.7m capex, plus A$8.5m Big Springs cash equals A$535.0m. No Appendix 5B is included, so operating cash flow, total outgoings and funding quarters are not stated. The company says it is building cash, and the June quarter was recorded as self-funding with no debt, but this release gives no funding runway figure.
Appendix 5B explained - why runway predicts raisings - every company's runway
How the price reacted
News signal positive, and on day 1 the stock moved +0.6% against the gold index (XGD). After 20 trading days: -1.7% against the XGD.
From the last close before the market could trade on it ($14.40 on 2 Oct 2026), with day-1 volume 0.5x the 20-day average.
CMM's past price-sensitive news
After 9 earlier announcements, CMM rose on day 1 4 times and fell 5 times - an average move of +1.6%.
DrillScore has no share price reactions on record for earlier price-sensitive Capricorn news, so there is no stock-specific pattern to compare. The last quarterly (31 July, June quarter) and the 27 July study were both assessed as positive. Since release, the share price has moved from A$14.40 to A$13.63 while gold miner indices fell. This move cannot be attributed to this release alone, and this note does not predict the share price.
Past reactions describe what happened, not what will. How prices react to results
The historical pattern
What share prices did after past results like this one, from DrillScore's own records. It describes the past: it isn't a forecast for CMM and it isn't advice.
After 41 other announcements read as 'positive', stocks moved +1.8% by day 1, +2.3% by day 5 and +1.1% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.8%
- Day 5
- +2.3%
- Day 20
- +1.1%
After its earlier announcements, CMM moved +1.2% by day 1, +0.2% by day 5 and -2.0% by day 20 against the XGD on average.
- Day 1
- +1.2%
- Day 5
- +0.2%
- Day 20
- -2.0%
In the 20 trading days before this release the XGD gold index moved -7.2% (falling). After 34 past gold announcements released into a falling gold index, stocks moved +1.9% by day 1, +4.2% by day 5 and +12.3% by day 20 on average - before taking the market's own move out.
- Day 1
- +1.9%
- Day 5
- +4.2%
- Day 20
- +12.3%
A strand leans up or down when its day-5 average is 1% or more either way. Each is shown on its own and never added up into a prediction: small samples swing, and every result is different. The full backtest - how it's worked out
The market it landed in
| Market | On the day | Now | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (US$/oz) | US$4,162 | US$3,886 | -6.6% |
| Gold (A$/oz) | A$6,007 | A$5,737 | -4.5% |
| Copper (US$/lb) | US$6.49 | US$6.09 | -6.2% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6929 | 0.6774 | -2.2% |
Measured from the 2 October close, gold fell 6.6% in US$ (to US$3,886.3/oz) and 4.5% in A$ (to A$5,737/oz). A weaker Australian dollar (down 2.2%) cushioned the A$ fall. Even after the fall, spot A$ gold is far above the FY27 AISC guidance of A$1,900-2,100/oz, so the margin per ounce at spot looks wide. The release does not state a price deck. Sector mood has been negative: GDX is down 7.0%, GDXJ down 12.9%, XGD down 1.6% and COPX down 19.4% since the release. Silver fell 18.1%. A$ gold is still 10.6% lower over one year, while XGD is up 3.4% over the same period.
Against CMM's own history
The June quarter reported 30,437 oz at A$1,648/oz AISC, with positive operating cash flow of A$135.12m and no debt. This quarter's 31,218 oz is slightly higher. The FY27 AISC guidance of A$1,900-2,100/oz is above the June quarter actual, and the release does not explain the difference. Cash rose from A$507.0m at June to A$535.0m at September, after the Big Springs sale (A$13.7m upfront, announced 26 August) and KEP capex. DrillScore has no capital raisings on record, and the June quarter was recorded as self-funding. The 27 July study had reported reserves of 5.24Moz, and this release adds Mt Gibson approval progress and completed engineering.
Risks & caveats
- The quarter's AISC and cost detail are not yet disclosed, so the cost trend cannot be checked from this release.
- Guidance is for the full year, so one quarter of output does not by itself confirm the FY27 range.
- The Mt Gibson Part IV assessment and Part V approvals are still pending, and no approval timing is stated.
- KEP has been commissioned on low-grade feed and is only now moving to run-of-mine grade, so early grade and recovery performance is not yet proven.
- The A$535.0m figure combines cash and gold on hand, so the release does not show how much is cash that can be spent.
What's next
- Full operational and cost details, including the September quarter AISC, in the Quarterly Report - later in October 2026
- Development and exploration details in the Quarterly Report - later in October 2026
- Mt Gibson Part IV Western Australian assessment and Part V secondary approvals - not stated
- KEP ramp-up to run-of-mine grade - Q2, as stated in the release (no year given)
- Mt Gibson construction timeline following receipt of all permits - not stated
Questions worth asking
- What was the September quarter AISC, and why is the FY27 guidance of A$1,900-2,100/oz above the June quarter actual of A$1,648/oz?
- What grade does KEP need to reach the 150,000 oz per year rate, and how does it compare with the Q2 run-of-mine grade?
- What is the expected timing of the Part IV assessment, the Part V approvals and the Mt Gibson construction decision?
- How much of the A$535.0m is cash, and how much is gold on hand?
- Will the Quarterly Report include a full Appendix 5B showing operating cash flow, outgoings and funding quarters?
What it means
This is a positive operating update on the company's own numbers. Output held near the prior quarter, the expansion was finished on time, and cash rose. The key gaps are the cost figures, which come in the Quarterly Report later in October, and the Mt Gibson approval timing. Anyone following the stock should compare the September quarter AISC with the A$1,900-2,100/oz guidance and check the cash split once the Appendix 5B is lodged. This is general information only, not personal financial advice.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
Decoded 15 Nov 2026, 8:17 am by claude-haiku-5-5 - confidence: high. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
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