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Result against reaction
Did the market agree? Each decoded result's quality - its DrillScore, or for other news its signal - against how the stock moved against the ASX gold index (XGD), so a sector-wide rally isn't mistaken for good news.
Drill results: DrillScore against the 5-day move
Green corners: the market agreed. Red corners: it didn't - a strong hit sold off, or a weaker one rallied. Click a dot for the analysis.
Across 12 drill results so far there is no real link (rank correlation 0.16). That is a small sample - it becomes meaningful once DrillScore follows the explorers, who report drill results far more often than these producers.
The backtest: do higher DrillScores outperform?
The average move against the XGD after drill results in each DrillScore band. Under five results in a band and the averages are greyed out - one big mover can swing them.
| DrillScore band | Results | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Beat the XGD by day 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standout | 1 | -1.4% | -1.7% | - | - |
| Strong | 6 | 0.0% | +0.3% | -0.2% | 50% (2 of 4) |
| Solid | 2 | -0.8% | -1.7% | -2.5% | 0% (0 of 2) |
| Weak | 3 | +0.8% | +0.2% | +2.8% | 100% (1 of 1) |
| All | 12 | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.4% | 43% (3 of 7) |
Other news: the signal against the reaction
Quarterlies, results, guidance, takeovers and the rest - DrillScore's read of the news against what the stock did.
| News signal | Results | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Beat the XGD by day 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | 42 | +1.8% | +2.3% | +1.0% | 42% (17 of 40) |
| Mixed | 40 | +0.5% | +0.8% | +0.7% | 47% (16 of 34) |
| Negative | 1 | -0.3% | +0.1% | - | - |
| All | 83 | +1.2% | +1.6% | +0.9% | 45% (33 of 74) |
Where the market disagreed most
Good news, stock fell
- NewsGGP Greatland FY26 audited net profit A$862.3m, up 156%; revenue A$2.26bn; no dividend declared27 Aug 2026 - signal positive-10.7%
- NewsGGP Greatland reserves rise to 5.0Moz gold; Telfer reserve up 150% to 1.8Moz29 Jun 2026 - signal positive-8.1%
- NewsCMM Capricorn posts record FY26: A$769.3m sales, A$504.8m net cash, 5c final dividend, FY27 guide 137-147koz27 Aug 2026 - signal positive-3.4%
- NewsRRL Regis Q1 FY27 gold output 83.0koz, which it says met expectations; cash and bullion up to A$1.28B7 Oct 2026 - signal positive-3.2%
- NewsGMD Genesis June quarter: 70,766oz gold at A$2,797/oz AISC; FY27 guidance and Vault merger timing28 Jul 2026 - signal positive-2.9%
- NewsGMD Genesis September quarter: 72,107oz at A$2,966/oz AISC, cash A$598m, FY27 guidance kept22 Oct 2026 - signal positive-2.6%
- NewsCMM Karlawinda Expansion completed on schedule; 6.5Mtpa throughput reached, about 150koz a year expected23 Sep 2026 - signal positive-2.3%
Weak news, stock rose
- 38Weak+3.8%
Good: DrillScore 65+ or a positive signal. Weak: DrillScore under 50 or a negative signal. A move is 2% or more against the XGD. A disconnect is a question, not a signal - the market often knows something the announcement doesn't say.
General information only - not financial advice. DrillScore's analyses are produced automatically by an AI model (Claude, by Anthropic) from the company's own ASX announcement and public market data, and scored by a fixed formula (how it works). They can be wrong or incomplete, don't consider your objectives or circumstances, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Always read the original announcement and consider advice from a licensed adviser.
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